| Monetary Insanity: ECB Considers Negative Interest Rates, Looking for Clues From Denmark; Anteaters and Hurricanes Posted: 21 Jul 2012 10:36 PM PDT The ECB is now pondering monetary insanity: ECB's Coeure says negative bank deposit rate an option Cutting the deposit rate the European Central Bank offers lenders in the euro zone below zero is an option, ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said on Friday.
Speaking in Mexico, Coeure said the bank needed to take the rate down 25 basis points to zero to match its cut in the reference rate.
He said policymakers would need to consider whether it could take the deposit rate below zero, which would mean the central bank would start charging banks for the privilege of parking spare cash in the ECB.
"It's still possible," Coeure told students at an event in Mexico City. "It's true that we are hitting a psychological limit at zero. And it's unclear whether markets can function at negative interest rates. Some of them can."
"Some of them apparently can't. So before making the next step, which would be moving the deposit facility to a negative yield, we'll reflect about it," he added.
Denmark introduced a negative interest rate this month and the ECB is watching closely how the move plays out. Negative Rates in Denmark, Switzerland The Wall Street Journal discusses Negative Rates in Denmark, Switzerland. July 6, 2012
For the first time ever, the Danes cut one of their official interest rates to below zero on Thursday.
Struggling against a tide of foreign capital seeking a safe haven, the Danes are trying to keep their exchange rate from rising to the point of throttling domestic industry. Unfortunately, one way or another, the struggle to retain competitiveness is likely to be a forlorn hope.
Denmark's certificate of deposit rate was chopped by a quarter point to where CDs now yield minus 0.2%. Which is to say holders of these certificates willingly pay the Danish government a fifth of a percentage point for Denmark to hold their money.
Like Denmark, Switzerland is once again struggling against these capital flows, albeit nowadays they're coming from closer to home.
Market rates on various short-dated Swiss, German and Danish government paper have been negative during the past year. Indeed, what started off as negative rates on the most short-dated bills has been creeping along the yield curve. On Friday morning, yields on the German two-year note, known as the Schatz, dropped to minus 0.01%.
So far, Switzerland and Denmark have managed to limit their currency appreciation. Switzerland has heroically been defending the 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro floor by buying euros frenetically. Anteaters and Hurricanes Denmark and Switzerland want to stop capital inflows and currency appreciation. In contrast, the ECB does not want to stop currency appreciation nor does it want acceleration of bets against the euro. Rather, the ECB wants to stop capital flight specifically from Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Moreover, and also in contrast to the problems in Denmark and Switzerland, the ECB is struggling with dramatically different sovereign bond rates in the Southern Europe (notably Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal), than the rest of Europe. Such conditions only apply to monetary unions, not individual sovereign countries. The only thing the ECB is likely to achieve if it goes ahead with this ridiculous idea is cause a massive cash withdrawal from money markets in general, not halt capital flight in Southern Europe. Negative rates sure will not spur lending, another possible goal of the ECB. Yet, Benoit Coeure wants to study results in Denmark. Good luck with that. All things considered, studying negative rates in Denmark for application across the entire ECB is like studying anteaters when the problem is hurricanes. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Prepare for Spanish Implosion: Businesses Threaten to Leave Spain Over Tax Hikes; Finance Minister Proposes 56% Tax on Short-Term Financial Transactions Posted: 21 Jul 2012 03:59 PM PDT Cristobal Montoro, the Spain's finance minister has made a liquidity destroying proposal to tax short-term financial transactions at an astonishing 56% tax rate. Businesses are already upset over hikes in the VAT and have threatened to leave Spain. Interestingly, in spite of raising taxes elsewhere, the VAT was lowered on the highly subsidized renewable energy sector. Why? Here is the answer: "Secretary of State for Finance, Ricardo Martinez Rico, is the leading advisor in the industry". Prepare for Spanish Implosion Here is the "as-is" Google translation of the El Econimista article Waiting for the Intervention. Emphasis in bold not added. The Bundesbank is opposed to the purchase of deduda, the only thing that can save Spain and Italy. Autonomy, conflict, power and government crisis rumors complicate everything.
The situation is out of control. The government approved last week the biggest adjustment of his story in hopes that it would serve to calm the markets. But it was not. The risk premium yesterday overcame the barrier of hundred basis points, something never seen, and the bond closed at 7.27 percent. The first question that arises is what should make efforts so painful as the increase in VAT or removal of the extra pay of officials if markets continue to punish us hard. It would be naive to think that just announced a big cut, things would begin to change. There are still many uncertainties that sow mistrust.
The fine print of 65,000 million adjustment shows that there is more emphasis on income than expenditure. Tax revenues provide about 38,000 million, compared to 27,000 in less spending. This, coupled with the rise in income tax, makes Spain one of the countries with the highest direct and indirect tax burden on the planet Earth. Economists warn that this tax increase may cause a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) higher than expected by the Government. Especially in 2013, in which the drop exceed 1 percent, twice the official estimate.
Apart from the contradictions of the official figures of the adjustment and the controversy, was put in doubt the 22,000 million in revenue under VAT, only so far this year has accumulated a fall of 10 percent. The increase will boost the economy submerged and can neutralize the expected increase in revenue, defended himself as finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, as opposed to undertake this measure. The general impression is that more cuts are to be decided. Montoro himself fed this thesis to warn this week in Congress that state coffers are empty.
The other settings should focus on the regions and aim to remove 427,000 employees created by them during the last ten years (see story on Monday in elEconomista). However, this week has been strong resistance from regional governments to make further cuts. The call of the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, a regional rebellion against the Government is a paradigm for stimulating this international distrust.
Many people wonder, moreover, what moral authority left to the PP's general secretary, Maria Dolores de Cospedal, to convince the rest of communities governed by their party, when his government of Castilla-La Mancha is among reprimanded. No, of course.
I do not think right now an investor in and outside our borders who believe in the autonomy will obey Montoro. The finance minister was guilty of naivete in advance at the beginning of the year 5.176 million for half of the estimated settlement funding system because it has stopped to tighten their belts. In addition, ICO 15,000 million in loans to cover the debt did not help anything.
In the energy sector also confusion reigns. Vice President, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, yesterday attributed the delay in reforms that several ministers were outside Spain, including Industry, José Manuel Soria. But the reality is that Soria travel left after slamming the door and refuse to accept the distribution of tax burden and renewable power on the table by Montoro. Some companies threatened to move the headquarters of their business outside Spain to avoid the very strong tax hike planned by the minister of finance.
The reduced charge provided for solar energy, although it is one of the most subsidized, and the fact that former Secretary of State for Finance, Ricardo Martinez Rico, is the leading advisor in the industry, Abengoa, raises many critical and casts suspicion on the cleaning process. If autonomy is not yet speak openly of rebellion, in power so clearly.
To add more uncertainty, Montoro announced his willingness to levy confiscatory rates close to 56 percent of the purchase or sale of short-term securities. An initiative incomprehensible allegedly coming from a government liberal or right, we like a capricious regime such as the populist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
To complete the clinical astonishing about our rulers, the rumors of clashes between the ministers of finance and economics, Luis de Guindos, or between it and the head of the Economic Office, Alvaro Nadal, have given way to a possible government crisis to designate a single responsible in economic affairs. The recent article by Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, El Pais, dedicated to solving economic problems rather than addressing the many international crises, pitted the bonfire of the vanities. Margallo with Josep Pique are the secrets to a hypothetical vice presidential candidates economy. It is true that in Europe caused a great embarrassment to the current division of responsibilities between the Treasury and between them and the Economic Bureau, which serves as a minister in the shade to chair the Executive Committee for Economic Affairs in the absence of Rajoy.
The spark that triggered this Molotov cocktail on black economic forecasts and instability of the government team is highly liquid Treasuries. The data show that the mattress is exhausted debt issued earlier this year at affordable prices, so from now the Treasury must pay prohibitive prices, which make untenable the vote.
The mere request of the autonomous community of Valencia to qualify for the liquidity fund announced by the Treasury market sparked fears and attacks on the risk premium. The alarm was given by the auction on Thursday, because it showed no there is a demand for government debt beyond the lyrics to one year. With banks in retreat, because they have run out of ammunition delivered earlier this year by the ECB, nobody can predict how they will renew the 28,000 million coming due next October.
The German Parliament gave strong support for the bank bailout. But the statements by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the end of last week, encouraging all to seek the intervention Rajoy, are a sign of strong opposition within the ECB to resume purchases of debt of Spain and Italy, all that could save us. It is also an indication that Germany is not aware of the risk to the single currency. Experts predict that if Spain is operated, the eye of the hurricane will move over Italy and eventually destroy the entire European project. The countdown to self-destruction of the euro is already underway. We'll see if we can stop it. Countdown To Self-Destruction Some of that translation is a bit choppy, but it is certainly easy enough to understand the entire gist of the article. My Take Spain certainly needs reforms such as shedding government workers, removing subsidies, and revising work rules to make it easier to fire (and thus hire) workers. However, Spain does not need increased VAT taxes and it certainly does not need a 56% tax on financial transactions. In short, Spain is resisting the measures that would be productive, and implementing those measures that will do the most harm. Spain Set to Implode Spain is set to implode. I agree with the author that "a countdown to self-destruction" is underway. Also see Death Spiral in Spain; Six Spanish Regions Seek Aid; Bankrupt Spain to Bail out Bankrupt Regions Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Death Spiral in Spain; Six Spanish Regions Seek Aid; Bankrupt Spain to Bail out Bankrupt Regions Posted: 21 Jul 2012 09:06 AM PDT Yields on 30-year and 5-year bonds in Spain hit a euro-era record on Friday as the Valencia region of Spain filed for financial assistance. Bloomberg reports Spain Bonds Slide as Valencia Aid Request Deepens Crisis Spain's bonds fell, sending five- and 30-year yields to euro-era records, as the region of Valencia prepared to seek a rescue, deepening concern policy makers are failing to find solutions to the debt crisis.
"Valencia's request for assistance underlines fears as to the central government's ability to bring wayward regions to heel," said Richard McGuire, senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. "That puts Spain under a considerable degree of pressure."
Spanish five-year yields jumped 47 basis points, or 0.47 percentage point, to 6.88 percent at 5:21 p.m. London time, after touching 6.903, the most since the euro started in 1999.
Valencia will tap Spain's financing facility for regional governments, the area's administration said in a statement on its website today. The funding mechanism was created last week to inject liquidity into the cash-strapped regions.
'Death Spiral'
The Spanish 30-year bond yield climbed as much as 17 basis points to 7.35 percent, a euro-era record. The 10-year yield rose 26 basis points to 7.27 percent, having jumped 61 basis points this week. The euro-era record is 7.285 percent. The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year securities instead of bunds widened to 613 basis points, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1993.
Spain faces a "death spiral" as higher yields push up borrowing costs, and that adds to concern the nation won't be able to services its debt, McGuire said. More Spanish Regions Seek Aid On Saturday, Bloomberg reported Six Spanish Regions May Seek Bailout After Valencia The Balearic Islands and Catalonia are among six Spanish regions that may ask for aid from the central government after Valencia sought a bailout, El Pais reported.
Castilla-La-Mancha, Murcia, the Canary Islands and possibly Andalusia are also having difficulty funding themselves and some of these regions are studying plans to tap the recently created emergency-loan fund that Valencia said it would use yesterday, the newspaper said, without citing anyone.
Spain created the 18 billion-euro ($23 billion) bailout mechanism last week to help cash-strapped regions even as its own access to financial markets narrows. Regional Revenue Plunges These translated paragraphs from El Pais tells the grim story. Regional governments are choking. In recent weeks, some banks have slowed lending to communities waiting for the Government to launch the Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA). The autonomous liquidity has evaporated.
Although most communities have taken a severe pruning in regional expenditure, revenue is in freefall. Noninterest income of the regions fell 6.15% during the first quarter, according to the budget implementation of the regions in the first quarter of 2012. Revenues from the transfer tax and stamp duty (ITP and AJD), one of the most important to communities because they manage themselves, has fallen nearly 23% between January and April this year.
This cash has dried communities are beginning to look cobwebs in their safes. An example of the agonizing situation is suffering the autonomy of Catalonia, two weeks ago had to formalize a loan of 500 million to pay the summer bonus to its employees. Bankrupt Spain to Bail out Bankrupt Regions There are 17 Autonomous communities of Spain of which at least six have applied for or are expected to apply for aid.  Eventually most, if not all of those regions will request aid. Spain itself needs a bailout (which it still denies but the market is going to force any time now). The plan in place now is for the bankrupt to bail out the bankrupt. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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