Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Protect Yourself from NSA Attacks and Don't Do Anything Stupid
• Hacker Group Declares "Total War" on ISIS
• Empire State Manufacturing Negative Fourth Month, Work Week Lowest Since Mid-2011

Protect Yourself from NSA Attacks and Don't Do Anything Stupid Posted: 16 Nov 2015 04:01 PM PST Can you protect yourself from NSA attacks? If they are determined to get you, I suspect probably not, but there is no reason to make it easy for them either. Reader "CJ" sent me a link to the November 15, Schneier on Security Crypto-Gram suggesting I take a look. I did and I pass on "CJ's" suggestion to everyone else concerned. Don't Do Anything Stupid One of the links from Schneier on Security involves a Woman Cheated Out of $825 After Posting Photo of Winning Ticket to Facebook. A woman named Chantelle placed a $20 bet on the 100-to-1 shot Prince of Penzance at this year's Melbourne Cup, Australia's most prestigious Thoroughbred horse race. The Prince of Penzance ended up winning the race, netting Chantelle a total of $825 in winnings. She blocked out part of the barcode with her fingers, and it appears the story blackened out more, but someone, likely a "Facebook Friend" reconstructed the barcode and collected the winnings. How to Protect Yourself from NSA Attacks I followed another link from Schneier to this story on How to Protect Yourself from NSA Attacks by the Electronic Frontier Foundation on defending your rights in the digital world. I followed the article's advice and made corrections to both Firefox and Google Chrome even though the author notes there is a trade-off: "Removing your clients support for "_DHE_" ciphers will eliminate the risk of this [NSA] attack, but it may also remove Forward Secrecy support altogether for some sites. Here's how to remove those "_DHE_" cipher suites if you still have them ...". Much of the article was way above my head, but I found the instructions for Firefox and Chrome easy enough to follow. If nothing else, please be careful of what you post on Facebook and elsewhere. I tend not to use Facebook at all, except for automatic posting of my blog links. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Hacker Group Declares "Total War" on ISIS Posted: 16 Nov 2015 11:26 AM PST Newsweek reports Hacker Group Anonymous Announces 'Biggest Operation' Against ISIS After Paris Attacks. Hacker group Anonymous declared "total war" on the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group on Sunday following the wave of attacks in Paris that killed at least 129 people and left dozens more in a critical condition. A masked, French-speaking figure with a distorted voice is shown reading a statement from the group in the two-minute-long YouTube video [In French]. "War is declared. Get prepared," the masked figure says in the video in reference to ISIS. "The French people are stronger than you and will come out of this atrocity even stronger. Anonymous from all over the world will hunt you down. You should know that we will find you and we will not let you go. We will launch the biggest operation ever against you." The escalation in Anonymous's operation against ISIS comes after at least seven suspected attackers carried out gun and bomb attacks against a number of civilian targets across the French capital, leaving 352 wounded and at least 99 in a critical condition. French police are continuing a manhunt for a man they believe took part in the attacks, identified as 26-year-old Salah Abdeslam. Anonymous has targeted ISIS for a number of months, revealing the Twitter accounts of ISIS members and hacking a number of the group's sites. U.S. magazine Foreign Policy estimates that the group has dismantled at least 149 of the extremist group's affiliated websites, flagged approximately 101,000 Twitter accounts and nearly 6,000 propaganda videos. Their campaign against ISIS began after the extremist group's cyber wing hacked the Twitter accounts of U.S. CENTCOM and Newsweek, in January and February respectively, and the radical Islamist attacks on the Paris offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January. Is Anonymous doing more for security than the NSA? Given the NSA's data gathering efforts are a clear constitutional violation of our right to privacy, and given the NSA's actual results in combating terrorism appear to be useless if not outright counterproductive for security purposes, the answer seems to be "yes". Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Empire State Manufacturing Negative Fourth Month, Work Week Lowest Since Mid-2011 Posted: 16 Nov 2015 09:15 AM PST The string of manufacturing negatives continues unabated with the Empire State Survey. Economists expected another negative month, but the result was worse than the lowest Econoday economist's prediction of -8.50. Negatives are beginning to run in Empire State with the index at minus 10.74 in November, right in line with the prior four readings and well below the Econoday consensus for minus 5.00. Several components are showing extended weakness including unfilled orders, at minus 18.18 for the lowest reading of the year, and also the workweek, at minus 14.55 for a fifth straight decline and the weakest run since mid 2013. With unfilled orders down and the workweek down, it's no surprise that employment is down, at minus 7.27 for a third straight loss and the weakest streak since late 2009. And prices, even outside of energy and commodities, are not helped by weak demand with prices for final goods at minus 4.55 for a third straight decline and the longest run of contraction since early 2013. Good news is hard to find but there is easing weakness in new orders, at minus 11.82 vs October's minus 18.91, and in shipments as well, at minus 4.10 vs minus 13.61. Still, this is the sixth straight decline for new orders and the fourth straight for shipments. Manufacturers are keeping their inventories down while delivery times, reflecting the weakness in shipments, are speeding up. This report is the first indication on November's factory sector and it points to another run of weak regional reports, starting Thursday with the Philly Fed. The factory sector, hit by weak exports and in contraction for a full year, is becoming perhaps the economy's Achilles heal -- and also perhaps a dovish wildcard for the December FOMC. Business Conditions vs. Six Months Expectations From the Empire State Report Business Conditions Continue to Worsen Business activity declined for a fourth consecutive month for New York manufacturers, according to the November 2015 survey. The general business conditions index was little changed at -10.7. Nineteen percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 29 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed seven points, but at -11.8, it pointed to an ongoing decline in orders. Similarly, the shipments index climbed ten points to -4.1, signaling that shipments also declined. The unfilled orders index fell three points to -18.2. Delivery times were shorter again this month, with the delivery time index holding steady at -10.9. The inventories index fell ten points to -17.3, indicating a significant reduction in inventory levels. Labor Market Conditions Weaken Further The prices paid index edged up to 4.6, suggesting that input prices increased somewhat after holding steady last month. The prices received index remained negative at -4.6, indicating that selling prices declined for a third consecutive month. Labor market conditions continued to weaken. The index for number of employees was little changed at -7.3, a sign that employment levels fell for a third consecutive month, and the average workweek index moved down seven points to -14.6, its lowest level since mid-2011. Comments The Empire State Survey is the initial salvo of Fed's regional manufacturing reports for November. The rest of the reports will likely be negative as well. Employment in the New York region and hours worked are both trending lower. Meanwhile, prices paid is in positive territory while prices received is negative. This represents a cost squeeze on manufactures even as demand weakens. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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