Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Still No Illinois Budget; S&P Downgrades Chicago Convention Center Bonds by 7 Notches; Will Schools Open?
- Mish for President: Officially Throwing My Hat Into the Ring; 11 Questions, 11 Answers
- Reader Question: Is Gold Manipulated?
| Posted: 06 Aug 2015 01:11 PM PDT Still No Illinois Budget Deal The NFIB reports Still No Illinois Budget Deal. No budget deal. Not even a one-month budget deal. Could a long summer turn into a long fall?S&P Downgrades Chicago Convention Center Bonds by 7 Notches Thanks to the budget impasse in Illinois, debt repayments on convention center bonds were not made, placing the bonds in technical default. As a result, S&P Downgrades Chicago Convention Center Bonds by 7 Notches. Illinois' ongoing budget battle led Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and Fitch Ratings on Wednesday to drop the rating on more than $3 billion of bonds issued for an expansion of Chicago's McCormick Place convention center.One Step Above Junk BBB- is one step above junk, quite the downgrade from AAA. The hot summer continues and both sides seem unwilling to bend. Thanks to a bill passed last year, legislators still get paid. But what about schools? Schools Will Open On June 24, Rauner signed HB 3763 which provides funding for elementary and secondary schools. However, the Sun Times reports Democrats warn 'Bigger Fights are Still on the Table'. By assuring schools remain open during an ongoing budget clash, Rauner took off the table a potential political deathtrap for himself and instead turned the tables on Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago. Madigan has accused Rauner of holding the state budget hostage to Rauner's proposed reform bills. After signing the legislation, it was Rauner who said he refused to allow Madigan to hold schoolchildren hostage over the speaker's refusal to sign off on Rauner's pro-business, anti-union reforms.Pressure Off By signing a measure to fund schools, Rauner took the pressure to "do something" off himself, but also off the legislature. Net-net I take that trade. So we sit. And I support Rauner not working out a tax hike deal with House leader Michael Madigan unless it involves significant reforms. Reform Wish List
Rauner needs to hold out for far more than a workers' compensation trade. And I encourage the governor to hold out until he gets most of that list, however long that takes. Someone needs to break the hold Madigan has over Illinois, and Rauner is the only one with that chance. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Mish for President: Officially Throwing My Hat Into the Ring; 11 Questions, 11 Answers Posted: 06 Aug 2015 10:32 AM PDT The American public has questions. And unlike others running for president, I have frank answers. And with my answers to major questions presented below, I officially throw my hat into the GOP presidential sweepstakes ring. 11 Questions US Public Wants to Ask Candidates Gallup has an interesting article based on the premise If the American People Were Running the GOP Debate what would they ask? Gallup claims the questions are based on issues that people say are the most important problems facing the country today. Gallup says there are "No gotcha questions or efforts to stump the candidates or push them off their talking points, just sincere questions from the people to help them understand how these individuals who want to take over as the people's chief executive would handle the issues the people deem most important." Gallup Questions, Mish Answers Here are the questions, along with my answers. I believe I am the only candidate willing to answer truthfully. First question: How do you propose to fix the U.S. economy? Mish answer: The economy is in mess precisely because we have too many government bureaucrats as well as the Fed attempting to fix it. We do not have a failure to regulate, we have failure by regulation. Every affordable housing program failed. Obamacare failed. The Fed and the government bailed out the banks while taxpayers took the risk. The number one sponsor of income inequality that Fed chair Janet Yellen rails against is the Fed itself. The number two sponsor of income inequality is Congress. The Fed has blown bubble after bubble for the primary benefit of the already wealthy. And everywhere Congress has meddled has been a disaster. The primary examples are health care, education, and housing. None of them are affordable. We need a simpler tax code and more free market economics, because every time the government steps in, government makes things worse. And every time the Fed steps in, the Fed blows bubbles. Second question: How do you propose to deal with the people's record-low confidence in Congress and the elected representatives they send to Washington? Mish answer: The supreme court decision that corporations are people makes no sense. We need another challenge. Campaign finance reform is certainly needed. Gerrymandering by both political parties has to stop. That the vast majority of Congress gets reelected every election even though Congressional ratings are at record lows says volumes about how the system is rigged for incumbents. Third question: What do you propose to do about race relations in this country? Mish Answer: We need more prosecutors like Hamilton County Prosecutor Joseph Deters who brought murder and manslaughter charges against University of Cincinnati police Officer Ray Tensing for the traffic stop shooting death of motorist Samuel DuBose. Deters had the courage to stand up to the police unions. In addition, Deters wants to decriminalize marijuana and so do I. Most of those in prison for minor drug violations are black. When they get out, they cannot get a job because of their prison record. The system of hate and crime feeds on itself, for the benefit of prison unions, drug lords, and those allegedly seeking to stop the spread of drugs. Fourth question: What do you propose to do about immigration and individuals living in this country illegally? Mish answer: The first thing we need to do is close the door. The way to do that is not build a wall on the border, but instead build an economic wall: Be willing to decline free education, free medical care, and housing assistance to those who are here illegally. Once we stop the flow, we can then have an honest debate about long-time illegals. Positive factors for amnesty include those who have a steady job, speak English, own property, or have US citizen children. Negative factors include those with criminal records. Joint discussions with Mexico on border controls and repatriation issues would be wise. Fifth question: What do you propose to do about jobs? Mish answer: Set the corporate income tax rate to zero on income produced and held in the US. Jobs would return. Instead, US corporations stockpile money and jobs overseas in foreign tax havens. In addition, and as addressed in question one, we need more free market reforms including the elimination of the much beloved but very damaging minimum wage. The problem is not one of wages, rather the problem is Fed and government policies are such that wages people earn do not go far enough. It's important to understand the real source of the income inequality problem rather than pile on counterproductive regulations to "fix" it. In addition, we need national right-to-work legislation, the end of collective bargaining of public unions, and we need to scrap all prevailing wage laws. We also need to eliminate all tariffs. The first country that truly embraces free trade, regardless of what any other country does will be a huge winner. Jobs will flourish if the US does what I suggest. Sixth question: How do you propose to deal with declining moral, family and ethical values in this country? Mish answer: Get government out of the bedroom and get religion out of government. It's none of my business, or anyone else's business whether someone is gay or straight. In regards to ethics, it's a travesty of justice that not a single high-profile executive of a major corporation had to pay a dime for their role in the great financial crisis. More criminal prosecution was warranted and would occur under my administration. Seventh question: How do you propose to deal with the federal budget deficit? Mish answer: Slash spending across the board. Both military and entitlement spending have to share the pain. It's high time we, as a nation, have a heart-to-heart talk about what we can afford and cannot. We clearly cannot afford to be the world's policeman and at the same time keep other entitlement promises we have made. Candidates unwilling to admit this obvious fact are liars. Eighth question: What do you propose to do about poverty? Mish answer: My answers to the first and fifth questions explain essential parts of my program. In addition, I would create a much-needed incentive for people to get out of poverty. Right now, many would rather take free benefits than seek a job. To those, I would limit what food stamps can buy. I would add soap and detergent to the list of eligible items in order to promote cleanliness, but I would take away snacks, pop, frozen pizza, etc., and other items. Food stamps should buy very basic items, and nothing more. We need to make it uncomfortable to stay on welfare, while still providing minimum nutritional needs. We also need a big investigation of medicare fraud and disability fraud. Such proposals would be the true enactment of "compassionate conservatism". Ninth question: How do you propose to deal with crime and violence? Mish answer: I partially addressed this question number three. Drugs are a key item. The primary beneficiary of drug laws is the drug lords. Criminalization of drugs increases prices while creating a huge incentive for pushers to get people hooked on drugs. Take away the profit and the pushers go away. So does crime. And prisons won't overflow at enormous cost to taxpayers. Tenth question: How do you propose to improve the education our children receive? Mish answer: End collective bargaining of public unions. Put the kids first, not the unions. Make it easier to dismiss poor teachers. Eleventh question: How do you propose to make healthcare more accessible and affordable? Mish answer: Scrap Obamacare and start all over. In addition, I would scrap all tariffs on prescription drugs coming into the country. While on the subject of tariffs, I would scrap all tariffs period. Back to healthcare, the US pays the highest costs in the world for legal drugs. We need more free market capitalism and less regulation. Charging $100 per aspirin in hospital stays to smooth out the costs is not an answer. Published rates for services should be welcome. It costs $20,000 for heart operations in India that cost as much as $250,000 in the US. I would like to see health care plans that require people healthy enough to travel elsewhere for major medical procedures. Anything that genuinely promotes competition is fair game. Obamacare failed because it does nothing to reduce costs. When we start over, the focus must be on competition, not free benefits. Floating foreign hospitals on boats offshore? Why not? The more competition the better. And finally, we need a serious heart-to-heart discussion on the "right to die" instead of the existing "keep people alive at all costs" mentality. Mish for President With that set of answers, I officially throw my hat into the ring. Why not? Everyone else is running. And the prospect of Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, etc. running against Hillary Clinton is downright nauseating. I did not give either Republicans or Democrats everything they want. In fact, I proposed many things one side or the other would have huge problems with. Yet, I did give the middle lots of things to think about. I believe someone could get elected on my set of answers ... IF ... one could survive the nomination process. Therein lay the problem.
Therefore we stew with the worst of both worlds: warmongering coupled with untenable benefit promises and slow stagnation until the next crisis. Debate Tonight The GOP debate is tonight at 9:00PM Eastern. I wasn't invited. But you have my answers. Let's see how the others stack up. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Reader Question: Is Gold Manipulated? Posted: 06 Aug 2015 01:45 AM PDT Reader Matt writes ... Hello Mish,Supply and Demand in the Gold and Silver Futures Markets Matt writes in regards to Supply and Demand in the Gold and Silver Futures Markets by Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler and in general about the theory of physical gold demand vs. paper gold. This article establishes that the price of gold and silver in the futures markets in which cash is the predominant means of settlement is inconsistent with the conditions of supply and demand in the actual physical or current market where physical bullion is bought and sold as opposed to transactions in uncovered paper claims to bullion in the futures markets. The supply of bullion in the futures markets is increased by printing uncovered contracts representing claims to gold. This artificial, indeed fraudulent, increase in the supply of paper bullion contracts drives down the price in the futures market despite high demand for bullion in the physical market and constrained supply. We will demonstrate with economic analysis and empirical evidence that the bear market in bullion is an artificial creation.My Reply Any time you see articles promoting the difference between physical gold and paper gold you are most likely reading a pile of crap. I have debunked such theories many times. In fact, one can easily prove such talk is complete nonsense. In spite of claims of shortages and price discrepancies, one can get physical gold near spot rather easily.
One can use BitGold to accumulate "physical gold" in small amounts at 1% over spot price, up to $50,000 worth. One can use GoldMoney to acquire larger amounts at far less markup. So, please don't tell me there is a difference in price between physical gold and paper gold. Right now, there isn't any. Rather, there is a shortage of coins and other small denomination forms of precious metals. There is also a huge number of suppliers that depend on hype to make a living. Here's my Reader Q&A On Bitgold. Purposeful Lies Claims that physical gold sells for huge percentage markups over "paper gold" are purposeful lies or blatant ignorance. There are no other options. Such statements don't imply there is no manipulation. In fact, manipulation is everywhere in my opinion, just not in all the ways the conspiracy nutcases proclaim. For example, there is no reason to believe the Fed is directly manipulating gold. Indirectly, however, the Fed certainly is. By suppressing interest rates and supporting the stock market, the Fed has indeed changed sentiment towards gold. In regards to dumping futures, the Fed is certainly not directly behind that process either. But what about the market makers? They could be, but I still suggest they do not care one way or another which way something goes as long as they make a profit. With that thinking, it would not surprise me one bit if the MMs manipulated gold to its previous high with the GATA advocates screaming all the way that the MMs were holding the price down. It's tiring to hear the exact same manipulation charges no matter what gold is doing. And such screaming has gone on for years, even though gold has quadrupled since 2000 (certainly far more than the major stock market indices). That said, someone sure benefits from these the middle of the night plunges at illiquid times. So put me in the group wondering who that is, and what if any laws were violated in doing so. And if laws were violated, let's have an accounting, as well as a look at the laws. I pinged my thoughts off Pater Tenebrarium at the Acting Man blog. He is one of my teachers on Austrian economics. He responded ... "I agree completely. It is a waste of time to chase after the conspiracy theories. The overnight market dumps of futures definitely represent short term manipulation, but I don't believe it's illegal." To that, let me ask, if it's illegal, should it be illegal? To answer that, we need to know who did it and why. If it was a hedge fund seeking profits the answer may be different than if it was a mutual fund betting against the interests of those for whom it has a fiduciary conflict of interest. We Waz Robbed What isn't manipulated? If the manipulation is illegal, let's see the case. And if there is a case, we then need to discuss if such actions should be illegal. Purposely betting against clients you are supposed to be representing would cross the line. Admission Even though I was on the right side of the inflation/deflation debate, with hyperinflationists and death-to-the-dollar advocates looking extremely foolish along the way, I failed to see what "QE manipulation" would mean for gold. And let's not pull punches: QE is blatant manipulation. To get rid of that kind of manipulation, one would need to get rid of the Fed. Questions of the Day Did anyone blaming "manipulation" fail to know the Fed existed? That the Fed supports the markets with QE? With talk? With suppressed interest rates? The "we waz robbed" claim primarily comes from people who simply do not want to admit they analyzed the market poorly over the past two years. I prefer to admit that I failed to see the complete implications of QE rather than make self-serving conspiratorial claims or plow into assets that I know are ridiculously overpriced. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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