Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Graph Shows Who Is And Who Isn't Paying Their Fair Share of Taxes
• Netherlands on Edge of Economic Crisis; Unemployment Surges as Home Prices Collapse
• Minister of Spain's Housing Board Cites "Mortgage Scam, Illegal Evictions" Calls for Mortgage Debt Reduction

Graph Shows Who Is And Who Isn't Paying Their Fair Share of Taxes Posted: 21 Apr 2013 10:39 PM PDT In response to 55% of Americans Say Their Income Taxes are Fair; 46.6% Paid No Income Tax in 2011 one seriously misguided soul responded "your hate for low income people disturbing". The above response was humorous because the math shows a large number of people are unhappy even though thy pay no income taxes at all. Nowhere did I state or imply any hatred of anyone. On a far more credible note, I received an email from Ironman at the Political Calculations blog who posted this chart on "Who Really Isn't Paying Their Fair Share of Income Taxes?" click on chart for sharper image I asked Ironman to explain the chart. Here is his reply. We used U.S. Census data to model the total aggregate income earned by individual Americans for each $100 increment of income in 2009 to create the "blue" income distribution bell curve using regression analysis, which we originally did as part of another project, where we modeled the total money income distribution of Americans. We then took the Tax Policy Center's data for the percentage of tax units without income tax liability for given levels of income and modeled that as well - and in doing that, we also get the percentage of tax units that do have income tax liability over the same income range. We then multiplied the percentage of tax units with income tax liability by the total amount of aggregate income earned within a given amount of income to determine the portion of that aggregate U.S. income that is subject to income taxes.  That result is represented as the "red"-shaded bell curve on the chart. The unshaded region under the "blue" total aggregate income curve is then the portion of income earned by Americans that is not subject to income taxes.  What If? In a followup email, I asked Ironman what the result would have been, if a 100% tax on all income above $1 million been in place. To that question he replied ... "By our calculation, the U.S. government would have taken in $800 billion more in tax revenue if it had taxed people making more than $1 million at 100 percent, according to IRS data from 2008, the year Ryan used as his base point." Thus, even taxing people making over $1 million at a rate of 100% would not have balanced the budget. Of course, if you tax anything at 100%, you are not going to get anywhere near the amount theoretically expected. Some might point out interest income, but others would point out disability and food stamps. Specifically, I would like to point out Unwilling to Work; 25% in Hale County AL Collect Disability, 14 Million Nationwide; A Simple Solution. Simply put, if you pay people enough to do nothing at all, you are going to encourage a lot of fraud by people willing to do nothing. Regardless of what you think about top income earners, the system is setup to encourage fraud and avoidance at both ends of the scale. Who suffers? Those in the middle. Perhaps it's time for a consumption tax, excluding food, medicine, and essential clothes. Perhaps some combination of flat income tax in conjunction with a consumption tax excluding food, medicine, and essential clothes. My only fear in suggesting such a thing is government nearly always screws things up by implementing things in a matter that will make matters worse. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Netherlands on Edge of Economic Crisis; Unemployment Surges as Home Prices Collapse Posted: 21 Apr 2013 12:05 PM PDT Netherlands is underwater in more ways than one. Der Spiegel reports Underwater: The Netherlands Falls Prey to Economic Crisis More than a decade ago, the Dutch central bank recognized the dangers of [the housing] euphoria, but its warnings went unheeded. Only last year did the new government, under conservative-liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte, amend the generous tax loopholes, which gradually began to expire in January. But now it's almost too late. No nation in the euro zone is as deeply in debt as the Netherlands, where banks have a total of about €650 billion in mortgage loans on their books. Consumer debt amounts to about 250 percent of available income. By comparison, in 2011 even the Spaniards only reached a debt ratio of 125 percent. The Netherlands is still one of the most competitive countries in the European Union, but now that the real estate bubble has burst, it threatens to take down the entire economy with it. Unemployment is on the rise, consumption is down and growth has come to a standstill. Even €46 billion in austerity measures are apparently not enough to remain within the EU debt limit. Although [Dutch Finance Minister and Euro Group Chief] Jeroen Dijsselbloem has announced another €4.3 billion in cuts in public service and healthcare, they will only take effect in 2014. "Sticking the knife in even more deeply" would be "very, very unreasonable," Social Democrat Dijsselbloem told German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, in an attempt to justify the delay. Dijsselbloem's Hypocrisy Note how Dijsselbloem is ready and willing to stick austerity measures of any kind on every other eurozone economy but his own. Unemployment Surges as Home Prices Collapse The Australia Macro Business blog picks up the story in Dutch unemployment surges as house prices fall. Earlier this month, I posted on how the Netherlands was facing a potential economic crisis on the back a severe housing correction, whereby house prices fell by -8% in the year to December 2012 to be down -18% since prices peaked in 2008, pulling many Dutch households into negative equity (see next chart). The release of labour force data overnight suggested the Netherlands' economy has deteriorated further, with Dutch unemployment increasing to 8.1%, a level not seen since the 1980s, with job losses most accute in the building industry (see next chart). The jump in unemployment follows the contraction in the Dutch economy, whereby GDP has contracted by -1.2% over the past year (see next chart). The sharp deterioration in the Dutch economy is placing pressure on the central government to abandon austerity measures, which it has pursued for the best part of two years and is partly responsible for the contraction in demand. Best is Yet to Come As noted, the hypocrites want austerity for everyone but themselves. Regardless, the Netherlands economy is headed for a much sharper contraction as is France. Simply put, the entire eurozone is in deep trouble even as the nannycrats insist the worst is behind. Ironically, the best is indeed ahead, and the best is a breakup of the eurozone. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Minister of Spain's Housing Board Cites "Mortgage Scam, Illegal Evictions" Calls for Mortgage Debt Reduction Posted: 21 Apr 2013 10:20 AM PDT The Minister of Public Works and Housing of the Government of Andalusia, Elena Cortes Jimenez, advocates a Reduction in Mortgage Debt for All Spanish Families. Here is a Mish-modified synopsis. Elena Cortes Jimenez, Minister of Public Works, claims eviction proceedings lead to further drying of mortgage lending, making it harder for young people to access home ownership. Jimenez proposes a "haircut" on private debt, in particular, mortgages. The minister stressed that "Spain has carried out 440,000 illegal evictions due to a mortgage scam, and it is absolutely necessary to have truth, justice and reparation for these families who have been in that situation." Jimenez once again defends the need for a restructuring of private debt. In his view, Congress of Deputies, and specifically the PP, have the "golden opportunity" to approve the initiatives on evictions and retroactive payments. End Mish-Translated Synopsis Good Grief! Exactly who is supposed to pay for this "golden opportunity" to forgive debt? Oh wait, I forgot. Spain's insolvent banks are supposed to provide the loan forgiveness.  Or was it the generous nannycrats in Brussels? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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