| Rare Senate Indictment of the War on Terrorism; Rand Paul's Courageous Effort Posted: 06 Mar 2013 06:48 PM PST To what extent should US citizens loses their constitutional right in the "war on terror". Can US citizens be apprehended without charges? Killed by drones? On US soil? John Brennan, Obama's nomination to run the CIA, refused to disavow even that last question. In response, Senator Rand Paul courageously, and single-handedly sponsored a filibuster in the Senate to block Brennan's appointment. Wired reports 11 Years Later, Senate Wakes Up to War on Terror's 'Battlefield America' Sen. Rand Paul's filibuster will inevitably fail at its immediate objective: derailing John Brennan's nomination to run the CIA. But as it stretches into its sixth hour, it's already accomplished something far more significant: raising political alarm over the extraordinary breadth of the legal claims that undergird the boundless, 11-plus-year "war on terrorism."
The Kentucky Republican's delaying tactic started over one rather narrow slice of that war: the Obama administration's equivocation on whether it believes it has the legal authority to order a drone strike on an American citizen, in the United States.
Paul recognized outright that he would ultimately lose his fight to block Brennan, the White House counterterrorism chief and architect of much of the administration's targeted-killing efforts.
But as his time on the Senate floor went on, Paul went much further. He called into question aspects of the war on terrorism that a typically bellicose Congress rarely questions, and most often defends, often demagogically so. More astonishingly, Paul's filibuster became such a spectacle that he got hawkish senators to join him.
as the filibuster picked up more and more media attention — and especially social-media attention — hawkish senators began joining in. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) praised Paul's efforts at compelling transparency from the White House. What Paul is arguing is "no less important than our Constitutional government itself," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), no dove.
It would be foolish to presume that Paul's moment in the spotlight heralds a new Senate willingness to roll back the expanses of the post-9/11 security apparatus. Rubio, for instance, stopped short of endorsing any of Paul's substantive criticisms of the war. But Paul did manage to shift what political scientists call the Overton Window — the acceptable center of gravity of discussion.
Paul's filibuster posed a challenge to the Senate more than it does Brennan or President Obama. "Is perpetual war OK with everybody?" he asked. Brennan will be confirmed anyway, but Paul's firm stance in the face of his chicken-hawk and constitutional-hypocrite colleagues is very much appreciated. I support Rand Paul for president in 2016. It was a pleasure meeting him in person Monday evening at a fundraiser in Palatine Illinois. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Eurozone Downturn Accelerates Despite German Growth; Divergence to France Widest in 15 Years Posted: 06 Mar 2013 10:34 AM PST The Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Final Data shows the Eurozone downturn accelerates. Key Points:
Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 47.9 (Flash 47.3, January 48.6)
Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 47.9 (Flash 47.3, January 48.6)
At 47.9 in February, the Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index came in above the earlier flash estimate of 47.3 but remained down on January's reading of 48.6. The index therefore signalled a steepening of the downturn in business activity, contrasting with the easing trend which had been evident in the three months to January.
Divergence to France Widest in 15 Years
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: "The dip in the Eurozone PMI compared to January is a disappointment, but the region still looks set to see a much smaller drop in GDP in the first quarter compared to the 0.6% decline seen in the final quarter of last year, with the PMI so far consistent with a 0.2% GDP decline.
"Worryingly, the divergence between Germany and France so far this year is the widest in the 15-year survey history. Germany is on course to see the strongest quarterly growth since the spring of 2011, but France is contracting at the fastest rate for four years.
"The deteriorating picture in the periphery is also a concern. Rates of decline picked up in Italy and Spain, with further weakness likely in Italy especially in coming months due to the uncertainty caused by the elections.
"The outlook therefore seems to largely depend on whether Germany can continue to expand and offset the weakness in France, Italy and Spain, which seems a tall order, meaning hopes of a return to growth for the region by mid-2013 are now looking too optimistic." Illusions of Stabilization Williamson has now changed his tune to something more in line with what I stated on February 7 in Illusions of Stabilization In Germany Rebounds but ... I noted a recovery "of sorts" in Germany, a contraction in France at the steepest rate in four years, and a record decrease in services employment in Italy.
Thus, it should be no surprise to see the Markit Eurozone Composite PMI® shows national divergence hits record high.
Yet, in aggregate, the eurozone contraction decelerated with the eurozone composite PMI rising from 47.2 to 48.6.
So, what's it all mean?
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit offered this interpretation: "The eurozone is showing clear signs of healing, with the downturn easing sharply in January and the region moving closer to stabilisation in the first quarter. ...."
No Signs of Healing
I disagree with Williamson. Those divergences show the eurozone is getting sicker, not healing.
If there was any healing, and certainly if there was any rebalancing, manufacturing and export growth would be picking up in Spain, in Italy, and in France at the expense of Germany.
A quick check of the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI will show that is not what's happening. There were no signs of stabilization last month, in January, or in December. And with the clear deterioration in France, imbalances have accelerated to the downside. In regards to Williamson's forecast of a 0.2% GDP decline, I will take "the under". Should "the over" line be right, don't expect it to last too long. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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