Economy News: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU Court Strikes Down Spain’s Eviction Law; Was This a Good Ruling?
Massive Ships 12-Miles Offshore to Provide Floating City for Entrepreneurial Start-Ups; Launch Date Q2 2014
Can We Fix What's Wrong With Banking?
Rand Paul Says "GOP of Old has Grown Stale and Moss-Covered"

EU Court Strikes Down Spain’s Eviction Law; Was This a Good Ruling?

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 05:52 PM PDT

Inquiring minds note that EU Court Strikes Down Spain's Eviction Law.

Campaigners in Spain hailed a rare legal victory over the country's banks and government when Europe's highest court struck down a draconian foreclosure law that had come to symbolise the brutal fallout from the eurozone's debt crisis.

The decision by the European Court of Justice will give Spanish courts new powers to delay or freeze the eviction of home buyers who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments. It will add to rising public pressure on the government in Madrid to change a tough mortgage regime that has allowed banks to evict tens of thousands of struggling homeowners.

Spanish lenders have repossessed almost 400,000 houses and offices since the start of the crisis in 2007, sparking angry protests and a broad popular backlash. In some instances, home buyers were reported to have committed suicide days or even hours before their eviction date.

Anti-eviction campaigners have collected almost 1.5m signatures to force parliament to debate a change in the law. The initiative seeks to end the current legal situation in which banks can demand full repayment of a mortgage even after it repossesses a house.

Ada Colau, a spokeswoman for the Platform of Mortgage Victims, said the court ruling left Spain's government with "no other option than to change the mortgage law".

The ruling handed down by the ECJ dealt with the case of Mohamed Aziz, who in 2007 took out a mortgage of €138,000 from Catalunyacaixa, a lender that was later nationalised. He stopped paying his instalments the following year, and was eventually evicted from his home in 2011.

Mr Aziz argued his eviction was illegal because the original mortgage agreement was unfair, and should have been annulled. He pointed out the contract allowed the bank to take away his home after just one failure to pay an instalment, and provided for a default interest rate of 18.75 per cent.

Was This a Good Ruling?

Regular readers I am a big proponent of walking away if the situation presents itself (click on link for numerous articles). But what is the situation here?

The situation is people paid silly prices for merchandise of dubious value. They also did so knowing there was not an option to walk away with no recourse.

I can sympathize with preposterous default interest rates of 18.75%, but I wonder what interest rate Mr. Aziz can afford to pay. I suspect Aziz can afford to pay 0% and nothing on principal.

With that in mind, this EU ruling is likely to keep people in their homes interest free (and payment free) for years. Is that a good thing? For who?

It is certainly a good thing for the likes of Mr. Aziz. It is a horrendous thing for taxpayers who will ultimately have to pick up the tab for everyone in this situation. It will also encourage everyone in a similar situation to stop paying their bills whether they can afford to or not.

In the US, banks knowingly entered into such contracts. In Spain they didn't, and that is probably why Spain's housing bubble was even bigger than the bubble in the US.

Spain's banking insolvency issue is going to get a lot worse. Those who were prudent will soon be majorly-screwed to help bail out those like Mr. Aziz who overpaid.

All things considered, this was not a good ruling. Nonetheless, expect socialists to cheer it. Also expect the prudent to pay through the nose to bail out not only the banks, but those foolish enough to throw caution to the wind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Massive Ships 12-Miles Offshore to Provide Floating City for Entrepreneurial Start-Ups; Launch Date Q2 2014

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 10:59 AM PDT

A company named Blueseed is a year away from offering entrepreneurs an inexpensive place, near Silicon Valley, in which to develop their products.

"Blueseed will station a ship 12 nautical miles from the coast of San Francisco, in international waters. The location will allow startup entrepreneurs from anywhere in the world to start or grow their company near Silicon Valley, without the need for a U.S. work visa. The ship will be converted into a coworking and co-living space, and will have high-speed Internet access and daily transportation to the mainland via ferry boat. So far, over 1000 entrepreneurs from 60+ countries expressed interest in living on the ship."

Here is a sampling of images from their page of Concept Vessels.

Who's Going to Blueseed?

Blueseed will be welcoming 1171 entrepreneurs from 368 startups in 66 countries.

Motivation Factor

Motivation for Coming to Blueseed	Not important	Somewhat important	Important	Very important	Critical
An alternative to having to get US work visas for myself or other company founders	25.80%	14.60%	16.80%	19.20%	23.60%
An alternative to having to get US work visas for my employees	27.70%	20.30%	21.20%	18.10%	12.60%
Streamlined legal and regulatory environment made with low overhead in mind	7.10%	11.00%	27.50%	29.10%	25.30%
Ease of finding talent	6.30%	14.30%	22.80%	29.70%	26.90%
Proximity to Silicon Valley's investors	3.30%	9.10%	19.80%	31.00%	36.80%
Living and working in an awesome startup- and technology- oriented space	0.30%	2.70%	10.40%	31.60%	54.90%
Coolness factor / fame / getting press	12.60%	15.40%	23.90%	22.30%	25.8

This is exceptionally cool stuff. Floating offshore hospitals and schools cannot be far off. I wish Blueseed well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013

Can We Fix What's Wrong With Banking?

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 09:28 AM PDT

I was asked a few days ago by Zócalo Public Square, a not-for-profit daily Ideas Exchange, to contribute a brief comment to coincide with their upcoming event "Can We Fix What's Wrong With Banking?"

I was specifically asked to address the question "should we have bailed out the banks?" Here is my response:

No, we should not have bailed them out. That's the easy question.

Now that we have bailed them out, however, here's the important question: "Will we fix what's wrong with banking before there is a global currency crisis?"

  On that score I have my doubts.   The simple fact of the matter is we have a massive mountain of debt everywhere you look: Federal debt, State and local debt, student loans, housing, unfunded liabilities in Medicare and Social Security, and untenable pension promises at every level of government.

Most agree that is a problem. Unfortunately, that's where the agreement stops.   Yet, before we can address the debt crisis, we have to understand how it happened.   

The source of the debt crisis is two-fold:

Fractional Reserve Lending
Fed (central banks in general)

Everything else is a sideshow, but few realize it.

Symptoms vs. Problems

The symptoms of the debt-bubble are slack demand, a lack of jobs, and stagnant growth. Most policymakers are hell-bent on attacking those symptoms, not the problem.

  Many point to the end of Glass-Steagall, rating agencies, "too big to fail," bank bailouts, and excess spending by governments. There are screams for more regulation in nearly every corner. The unions want more handouts. The socialists want to redistribute wealth. Those on fixed income want bigger Social Security checks.

The Keynesians and Monetarists want to attack the symptoms with more government spending and more central bank printing.   The average 8th grader can see how foolish most of those ideas are, but the average economist can't, and the average government bureaucrat does not want to be told he has to stop spending.  

Decades of Foolishness

The notion that a nation can spend its way to prosperity has been disproved time and time again.  The U.S. housing bubble was a direct result of the Fed bailing out banks in the wake of the dot-com bust.

Japan, once the world's largest creditor, now has a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 250 percent, the highest in the industrialized world.   It took three decades of foolish spending for Japan to achieve that debt-to-GDP level, and Japan believes it failed because it did not try hard enough.   

Central banks blow bubbles of increasing amplitude over time. And every step of the way they bail out banks that get into trouble. This is the legacy of central banks, and especially the legacy of the Greenspan and Bernanke Fed

Income Skew

I have written before why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer (see Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions)

In response, a Reader Asked Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else)

Please see the article for the evidence. Then, once you understand what the Fed is doing, the solutions should be easy to spot.

Solutions

The solution to the symptoms of massive income disparity, a dearth of jobs, and lack of growth is not wage caps on executive pay or hikes in the minimum wage or a return of Glass-Steagall. The real solution is elimination of the Fed, elimination of fractional reserve lending, and a return to sound money policies that do not benefit the already wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

Can we fix the problem? Of course we can. I just outlined how. But if it's so easy, then why don't we do it?

The answer to that question is remarkably easy. All you need to do is figure out who benefits from inflation. I addressed that in detail in Inflation Targeting Revisited; Three Major Fed-Sponsored Bubbles; Who Benefits From Inflation?

Here's the short answer: the banks, the wealthy, and the politicians are the ones who benefit from inflation, and they are also in control of the system.

So, are we going to fix what's wrong with banking before there is a global currency crisis? I am betting against that idea, holding gold as my method.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013

Rand Paul Says "GOP of Old has Grown Stale and Moss-Covered"

Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:49 AM PDT

Properly laying it on the line, Senator Rand Paul says GOP of old 'has grown stale and moss-covered'

Fresh off his filibuster that captured the hearts of libertarian conservatives, Sen. Rand Paul told attendees Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference that the Republican Party has become "stale" and must return to basic constitutional principles if it wants to ignite a political revolution.

Mr. Paul was the star of the conservative "Facebook generation" youth movement that paraded across CPAC's stage Thursday, joining others such as Sens. Marco Rubio, Mike Lee and Tim Scott — all of whom were elected after President George W. Bush left office.

"The GOP of old has grown stale and moss-covered," Mr. Paul said. "The new GOP, the GOP that will win again, will need to embrace liberty in both the economic and personal sphere. If we are going to have a Republican Party that can win, liberty needs to be the backbone of the GOP."

Mr. DeMint was scheduled to be a featured speaker at the "presidential dinner" — the final event of the evening.

But Mr. Paul, who impressed senators on both sides of the aisle with his recent information-seeking filibuster over the Obama administration's policy on drone strikes, appeared to have the most enthusiastic support in attendance.

"I came with a message — a message for the president," he said. "A message that is loud and clear. A message that doesn't mince words."

"Don't drone me, bro!" shouted one audience member.

"Well," Mr. Paul said with a laugh, "that's not exactly what I was thinking. However, I think he might have distilled my 13-hour speech into three words."

Real Clear Politics has a Rand Paul video as well as additional commentary.

The GOP of old has grown stale and moss-covered. I don't think we need to name any names, do we? Our party is encumbered by an inconsistent approach to freedom. The new GOP will need to embrace liberty in both the economic and the personal sphere. If we're going to have a Republican party that can win, liberty needs to be the backbone of the GOP. We must have a message that is broad, our vision must be broad, and that vision must be based on freedom.

There are millions of Americans, young and old, native and immigrant, black, white and brown, who simply seek to live free, to practice a religion, free to choose where their kids go to school, free to choose their own health care, free to keep the fruits of their labor, free to live without government constantly being on their back. I will stand for them. I will stand for you. I will stand for our prosperity and our freedom, and I ask everyone who values liberty to stand with me. Thank you. God bless America.

I stand with Rand. We need a fresh face and a breath of fresh air. Rand Paul offers both.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Economy News

15.3.13

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

No comments:

Post a Comment