Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:42 AM PDT Improper training of a Taiwan pilot took the lives of 43 people in February. In a report just released, the pilot's last recorded words were "wow, pulled back the wrong side throttle". Please consider TransAsia Crash Pilot Pulled Wrong Throttle, Shut Down Sole Working Engine. The captain of a TransAsia Airways ATR mistakenly switched off the plane's only working engine seconds before it crashed in February, killing 43 people, Taiwan's Aviation Safety Council (ASC) said in its latest report on Thursday.Robots the Solution
Don't email me with security issues because I am 100% confident that any security issues related to software hijacking etc. can easily be solved Gratefully, there are not that many plane crashes, but every time they do happen, I keep asking "Why?" The same question applies to trains, even more so. There have been several major train crashes in recent years. An autopilot never would have crashed any of the above planes and would have surely prevented many spectacular train crashes as well. Yet there is no discussion of how to use technology to prevent disasters like these. While looking up train crashes (preceding link), I noticed this report from just eight hours ago: 5,000 Evacuated in Tennessee After Train Crash Releases Toxic Fumes. I speculate engineer failure, likely driving too fast. On March 24, 2014, a CTA Blue Line Derailment at O'Hare Injured 32. Officials say the accident was caused by the train operator falling asleep. Driver Error Similarly, driver error is the main cause of truck accidents. Truck drivers who are improperly trained, sleepy, drug or alcohol impaired, or simply driving too fast are responsible for the vast majority of accidents. Although air pilot restrictions are stronger and more easily enforced than trucking restrictions, consequences of pilot error are more pronounced. It's been nearly 14 years since 911, yet unlike trucks, there have been no noticeable advances in pilot robotics. Why? And why do we still have humans driving trains? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 02 Jul 2015 07:44 AM PDT Initial Reaction Today's job report (for June) once again showed a huge divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey. Household survey employment fell by 56,000 while the establishment survey shows a gain of 233,000 jobs. The labor force declined by 432,000 and that explains the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3% from 5.5%. The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and April to 187,000 from 221,000. Part-Time Employment +372,000 Of note in the Household Survey, voluntary part-time employment rose by 519,000 while part-time for economic reasons declined by 147,000. That means there is a net increase in part-time employment of 372,000. BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
June 2015 Employment Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and transportation and warehousing. Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted  Nonfarm Employment  Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type  Hours and Wages Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.02 at $20.99. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.01 at $20.78. For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? Birth Death Model Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment  click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 5.2%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 10.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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