Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• German Left (Die Linke) VP Claims "Euro Divides Europe, No Benefit to EU"
• Industrial Production Declines, November and December Revised Lower; String of Unexpected Events Continues
• MEPs Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries

German Left (Die Linke) VP Claims "Euro Divides Europe, No Benefit to EU" Posted: 14 Feb 2014 01:56 PM PST In a Ziet Online interview, Sahra Wagenknecht, Die Linke vice president and economic spokesperson, says the "The euro splits Europe" and there is no benefit to the EU. ZEIT ONLINE: Ms. Wagenknecht, what is the biggest advantage of the European Union mean to you? Sahra Wagenknecht: After the Second World War, the united Europe has brought peace. But ever since the Maastricht Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union has developed in a direction that primarily serves the interests of big business and banks. ... Integration reduces the welfare of the majority in Europe along with growing anti-European resentment. We have 19 million unemployed in the south of Europe and a disastrous austerity policies, for which the European Commission is responsible as part of the troika. Entire countries are incapacitated and plunged into the social abyss. ZEIT ONLINE: Do you agree your life partner Oskar Lafontaine, that Germany should withdraw from the euro? Wagenknecht: He has not suggested that Germany exit the euro, but that a new currency system with stable exchange rates and capital controls in place of the Euro occurs. The euro as introduced, does not work, but divides Europe. ZEIT ONLINE: What's the alternative? Return to the D-Mark? Wagenknecht: It is clear that a resolution of the single currency must not allow exchange rate speculation. There must be institutions that hold the currency market stable. And it needs capital controls. ZEIT ONLINE: You argue like the AfD. Wagenknecht: I beg to differ. AfD top candidate Hans Olaf Henkel is a neo-liberal economic lobbyist who throughout his life seeks low wages and welfare cuts. The AFD is not for a social Europe. ZEIT ONLINE: The Left Party is the AfD for the poor? Wagenknecht: Nonsense. Even the middle class would benefit from more welfare state and a better wages. ZEIT ONLINE: Is end the EU the only message of the Left Party before its European Congress? Wagenknecht: That's not our message. We want a Europe that is socially and democratically and met, for example, the tax evasion by the rich and corporations with uniform tax rates at a high level. We hope that there will soon be a much stronger active resistance from the people of Europe and that the frustration just does not discharge in the election of right-wing populist parties. ZEIT ONLINE: Will your party will discuss how to deal with military operations? Wagenknecht: Of course. I find the current debate on more military involvement in Germany spooky. We've seen that the military operations in which we have participated, such as in Afghanistan, the people did not benefit. On the contrary, thousands of civilian deaths were the result. Humanitarians do not need bombs. German soldiers have no place abroad. ZEIT ONLINE: What would happen if there were a new Srebrenica [genocide in Bosnia]? Would the green helmets then stand idly by? Wagenknecht: Wars are never out of humanitarian reasons. Take a look a look at how conflicts arise in many conflicts, including in the Congo and elsewhere, European countries have supplied weapons and fueled the civil war. Some of these were proxy wars. And then come the arsonists. That's hypocritical, it's about raw materials and geostrategic positions. ZEIT ONLINE: Between Left Party and the Greens and the SPD prevails a Thaw. The party leaders of the Left and the Greens meet. SPD General Secretary Yasmin Fahimi was open to joint coalitions. Is a Red-Red-Green coalition in front of the door? Wagenknecht: It's good that there is finally calls. However, significant political differences remain. When I look at the policy that makes the SPD in the grand coalition, this differs significantly from what we want politically. Setup to Watch Eurointelligence had some interesting comments on this development, and I generally agree with the analysis. We know that Sahra Wagenknecht was always critical of the German government's handling of the eurozone crisis. Now the deputy leader and economics spokeswoman of the Left Party favours the dismantlement of the eurozone. It is not the party's official position yet but her statement as reported in Spiegel Online marks an important political shift for the party. Germany would then have two parties openly against the euro - the AfD and the Left. Her argument is that the euro splits Europe politically, that it disenfranchises states and impoverishes the majority of the people. As an alternative she is proposing a new fixed-exchange rate system with capital controls. This is one to watch. Despite entering a Grand Coalition, the SPD has now officially opened the door for a coalition with the Left Party in 2017 - and that position will either complicate or frustrate that process, or turn into a more general position of the left - depending on the politics of the eurozone crisis in the next few years. We believe that her arguments are to be taken seriously - Ralph Dahrendorf argued on the same lines well before the euro was introduced. The eurozone has yet to demonstrate that the arrangement will benefit the people in the long run. The real danger to the future of the euro will not come from financial markets. It could come from a broader political realization that the euro has failed to deliver. Not everybody is ready to come to the same conclusion as Wagenknecht, but we should not be surprised to hear more views like this. Capital Controls and More Regulation Not the Answer Her arguments regarding capital controls, more regulation, and fixed-rate exchanges are complete silliness. Europe does not need capital controls, nannycrat dictators, or fixed rate exchanges. Fixed rate exchanges cannot possibly work in conjunction with fractional reserve lending and other competitive currency debasement mechanisms. Her arguments should not be taken seriously, but it's likely they will. Nonetheless, Eurointelligence did mention the key idea "The real danger to the future of the euro will not come from financial markets. It could come from a broader political realization that the euro has failed to deliver." The euro has not delivered and it will not deliver. It is fundamentally, and fatally flawed. Political bickering over banking unions, fiscal unions, freedom of movement, and literally everything shows the euro cannot possibly be repaired. Repeating what I said in 2011 (and numerous times since): "Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected." All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely the right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Industrial Production Declines, November and December Revised Lower; String of Unexpected Events Continues Posted: 14 Feb 2014 09:56 AM PST This morning the Fed reported Industrial production declined. Moreover November and December were revised sharply lower. Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in January after having risen 0.3 percent in December. In January, manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent, partly because of the severe weather that curtailed production in some regions of the country. Additionally, manufacturing production is now reported to have been lower in the fourth quarter; the index is now estimated to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter rather than 6.2 percent. Market Groups Consumer goods fell 0.5%, the first decrease in six months Consumer durables down 2.6% Consumer non-energy nondurables down 0.8% Within consumer durables, the production of automotive products fell 5.1% and the output of appliances, furniture, and carpeting declined 0.6% Clothing up 0.5% Home electronics up 1.1% Paper Products down 1.0% Business equipment down 0.1%, a third consecutive decline Defense down 1.0%, a fourth consecutive decline Construction down 1.0% following loss of 0.6% in December Unexpected Happens Again The unexpected decline in industrial production (the most since May of 2009) follows The unexpected decline in retail sales which in turn followed The unexpectedly weak jobs report in February Which followed a Huge Miss in ISM; Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years Which followed a Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls +74,000 vs. 205,000 Expected in January Don't worry, it's the weather. Economists did not know it was cold and snowy when they made all of those estimates. Regardless, expect another lowering of GDP estimates as a result of today's unexpected news. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

MEPs Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries Posted: 14 Feb 2014 03:19 AM PST Via translation from El Pais, Members of European Parliament Accuse Troika of Aggravating Unemployment and Poverty in Rescued Countries "They could have acted as surgeons, cutting superfluous. Instead they acted like butchers with an ax," says MEP Alejandro Cercas in reference to the policies that the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the troika, that have been implemented in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus, the four Eurozone countries that were forced to request a bailout. The report before the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs of the European Parliament adopted on Thursday morning does not use such harsh words, but blames the three agencies-known as the troika for  policies that have contributed to the deterioration of the welfare levels in the four countries. "The extremely difficult economic situation and adjustment policies have led to an increase in unemployment," says the text. MEPs regretted also that these measures "be designed without adequate assessment of their consequences." The injury count after a long five years of crisis is substantial. The report notes that in 2012 the Greek youth unemployment exceeded 50%, but the latest data this percentage rose beyond 61%. MEPs regret that cuts in social benefits derived from the austerity measures are increasing "levels of poverty." The report adopted by the committee on Employment, focused on the social consequences of the bailouts. The European People's Party (the largest party in parliament which includes the CDU)  has distanced itself from the conclusions of this report. But watering down of the content will provoke a confrontation with leftist forces and prevent the Strasbourg plenary approval before the elections next May according to congressional sources. Discontent is growing by leaps and bounds. That discontent will play straight into the hands of the euroskeptics in the May election. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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