Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

---

When Will the Fed Hike Part II - Discussion of Debt Duration - Communication the Only Tool Left Posted: 14 Jan 2014 11:25 AM PST In response to When Will Interest on US National Debt Exceed $1 Trillion some readers objected stating "things are different now". I had to laugh at that. Others stated that I ignored duration. I did, but I did post results at various interest rates, one of them optimistically assuming rates would stay at current levels. For ease in discussion, here is the chart again, with my original "fed is in a box" claim. An analysis of "debt duration follows". Projected Interest at Various Rates Hidden Agenda The current blended rate of interest on the national debt is a mere 2.4% according to the CBO. The "optimistic" projection of $668 billion assumes the rate will stay below 3.1% through 2020. Shifting Goalposts Really think the Fed is going to hike? They know they can't, and the Fed is disingenuous as to why. A year ago the Fed was discussing 6.5% as a trigger point. In December, the Wall Street Journal noted the Fed's Shifting Unemployment Guideposts Now, in the wake of a massive collapse in the labor force in which unemployment rate just dropped to 6.7% it's easy to understand why the goalposts shifted. The Fed pretends its interest rate policy is about a dual mandate of jobs and GDP growth. The above charts show the real reason for the shift: the Fed is in a box of its own making and it has no freaking idea how to get out of the box. Duration Weighted Average Reader "Paul" pointed me to the OMB Fiscal Year 2012 Q1 Report. There are lots of interesting charts in the report, but especially note the chart on page 15, shown below (annotations in red are mine). Duration is expected to rise from from about 67 months (5.58 years) to about 78 months (6.5 years). Current Trends According to Bloomberg, yields are rising sharply on the long end. click on chart for sharper image Yield on the 5-Year note is currently 1.59%. A year ago it was 0.78%. Yield on the 10-Year note is 2.83%. A year ago it was 1.87%. Think the Fed can afford to let interest rates rise further? I didn't and still don't. Even though the average duration is now 5.5 years, The Fed Owns 40% Of All Treasuries Over 5 Years In Maturity. According to Forbes (see above link), during 4 years of QE, QE1, QE2, and QE3, the Fed accumulated 36% of all Treasury securities between 5 years and 10 years in maturity plus 40% of those government bonds over 10 years in maturity, as well as 25% of all the mortgage backed securities not owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What's the Fed going to do now? Accumulate all the notes and bonds? While buying less of them? The math doesn't quite work does it? Communication the Only "Tool" Left The Fed hopes to stabilize rates via communication, hoping to convince everyone of three things The economy is strengthening Regardless of the strengthening economy, the Fed won't hike rates Long-term rates should not rise Three Problems If the economy is strengthening, interest rates should rise If the economy is headed into a recession or even weakening, then equity prices and corporate bonds are grossly overpriced The Fed is not really in control Exit Strategy So what is the Fed's exit strategy? The Fed really doesn't have one, and that is the reason for all this meaningless communication from various Fed governors (frequently in contradiction with each other). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obama Promises the Pen of Executive Orders if Congress Does Not Act; Should Republicans Complain? Posted: 14 Jan 2014 09:48 AM PST Similar to a speech made last week in which French President Francois Hollande vowed to pass his agenda by executive order instead of parliamentary law, Obama warns Congress he will act alone. President Barack Obama said Tuesday he was pleased Congress had passed a sweeping $1 trillion spending bill, but warned he would wield power alone if lawmakers blocked his policy plans. Obama also called on Congress to act on his other priorities, including an extension of jobless insurance for the long-term unemployed and comprehensive immigration reform. "We're not just going to wait for legislation," Obama said. "I've got a pen and I've got a phone, I can use that pen to sign executive orders and take executive action and administrative actions that move the ball forward." While Obama can use his authority to implement policy changes on issues ranging from immigration to climate change and other issues, he must pass laws through Congress to enact the kind of sweeping political change he envisages and to deploy the power of the public purse. If Obama's threat sounds familiar it's because it is. Please consider, Hollande Wants to "Get Things Done" by Decree, Not by Passing Laws. When Hollande made his statements I asked two questions. Was president Obama inspired by Hollande or was Hollande inspired by Obama? Why have parliament, or Congress, if this is the ways the legislative process works? Should Republicans Complain? Obama seriously sounds like a spoiled brat. "If you won't give me cake, I will have cake anyway". No doubt, Republicans will complain strongly about the president's message. I have a better idea: As long as this is the way the system works, then let's see some real hardball from Republicans the next time they are in office. Turnaround is Fair Play By decree, let's get rid of the National Labor Relations board. More importantly, since President Kennedy instituted collective bargaining of public unions by decree, let's undo collective bargaining by decree as well. There is a massive amount of fertile ground for the kinds of decrees the country really needs, especially in regards to less government. If we can get less government via decree rather than Congressional bickering, I'm 100% in favor. So rather than complain now, let's hope the next president, Rand Paul, carries the "executive order torch" to the fullest extent possible. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610