Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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VAT Increase Backfires in Spain, Supermarket Sales Plunge 7.2% Posted: 15 Oct 2013 10:54 AM PDT The nannycrats in Brussels and the IMF keep pressuring Spain to hike the VAT and Spain does every time. The results are easily predictable. Via translate from El Econimista, please consider VAT Rise is "Catastrophic" Anged, the "Association of Large Distribution Companies" suffered a 7.2% drop in sales through August, the biggest drop in sales since the crisis began. Anged companies include El Corte Ingles, Carrefour, Auchan, Tesco, Ikea, Media Markt, Leroy Merlin and Toys R'Us. Employer, Alfonso Merry del Val, said the increase in VAT has been "catastrophic". Data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) show that sales in supermarkets were down  7.2% through August and the crisis is deepening. Apart from the increase in VAT, the Anged president was particularly critical of the rate that some regions have tax supermarkets activity. "It's a revolutionary tax. If not corrected, 18,000 jobs and more than 200 million of investments per year are in grave danger of disappearing," he said. VAT History Inquiring minds may wish to revisit my September 5, 2012 post: Spain VAT Hike Largest In History; Stunning Ineptitude Will Make History Books IMF Recommendation Given the stunning "success" of the 2012 VAT hike, the safe thing to do is expect more "success". And sure enough, just five days ago the IMF proposed Spain hike the VAT again. Via translation from Libre Mercado, please consider IMF recommends Spain to raise the VAT The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday that Spain has room "to better raise taxes" and increase the scope of VAT in order to increase revenue. Michael Keen, director of IMF fiscal affairs, said during the presentation of the Fund's fiscal report that Spain "has not used too much VAT tax" to increase income and has the potential to improve the "composition" of the excise tax. If Spain hikes the VAT, we can expect still more "success". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Decisive Victory by Le Pen's Eurosceptic National Front Party in Local Election Stirs Fear in Mainstream French Parties Posted: 14 Oct 2013 10:59 PM PDT Two recent events regarding Marine Le Pen and her eurosceptic party have the nannycrats in Brussels worried. The first occurred in early October when Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic "National Front" Party Took Lead in France National Poll. Yesterday, a huge victory by the National Front in a local election had the nanmnycrat alarm bells ringing. Please consider French far-right victory stirs fear among mainstream parties A local council by-election in a small town in the sleepy hinterland of France's Côte d'Azur would not normally be the stuff to shake national – much less international – politics. But a decisive victory by the National Front (FN) in Brignoles on Sunday night has set alarm bells ringing in Paris that the far-right party, led by Marine Le Pen, will repeat the feat more widely across the country in municipal elections in March. Just as ominous, not just for mainstream parties in France but across the EU, is the prospect that the vote signals a much-feared surge by the populist right in European elections due in May. Fingerpointing The bickering, finger-pointing and blame-placing events in the wake of the election are rather amusing. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault blamed the FN's win over the centre-right UMP on its leaders "who didn't lift a finger to defend their candidate". Jean-Francois Copé, the UMP's president, responded that Mr Ayrault should "come to his senses", saying the result was caused by President François Hollande's "calamitous" Socialist government, which backed the Communist candidate in Brignoles. Both parties are afraid that the FN's campaigns against crime, immigration, Islam, the EU and globalisation are striking a chord with voters at a time of double-digit unemployment and deep disillusionment over the ability of the traditional parties to deal with the country's problems. "The FN poison contaminates a whole country and all its politics," commented Libération, the leftwing newspaper. Poisoned Policies Those looking for poisoned economic policies should look no further than the policies of socialist president Francois Hollande. Here are a seven prime examples. October 10, 2013: Law of Career Security: France's Minister of Digital Economy Orders Telecom Companies "to be Virtuous and Patriotic" and to Use Alcatel-Lucent to Prevent Layoffs October 3, 2013: France Vows to "Save the Bookstores", Fixes Price of Books, Bans Free Shipping by Amazon May 17, 2013: Hollande Asks ECB to Engage in Japanese Style Currency Debasement March 22, 2013: Hollande Announces 20 "Confidence Shock" Measures to Support Home Building January 28, 2013: France "Totally Bankrupt" Says Labour Minister; Inappropriate or Inaccurate? October 31, 2012: "Google Law" Yet Another Warped Policy by Hollande; Government Motors French Style June 8, 2012: Hollande About to Wreck France With Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" Eventually Will Come A Time Let's flashback to November 23, 2011, to my statement Eventually, Will Come a Time When .... Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected. Le Pen may be too early, and France may not be that country, but the time will come. Greece, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and even France are possibilities. All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen. Le Pen was too early in 2011 and 2012. She may be too early still. And France may not even be the right country. But ... "All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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