6.1.13

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Startling Look at Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 10:28 PM PST

Last month I posted a chart showing employment by age group. Here is an update as of Friday's job release.

Employment Demographics by Age Group



click on chart for sharper image

Note that 100% of the job growth since the recession is in age group 55 and over.

Last month, someone proposed the above chart was blatantly misleading because it does not reflect the aging workforce.

Let's investigate that hypothesis with a look at actual data (numbers in tables and charts in thousands).

Civilian Institutional Population (CP) and Labor Force (LF)

Year16-19 CP20-24 CP25-54 CP55+ CP16-19 LF20-24 LF25-54 LF55+ LF
200015912183111206565769782711425010139318668
200115929188771216045868379021455710178919485
200215994193481220776015175851478110171920778
200316096198011232896198171701492810230922104
200416222201971234106352771141515410212223011
200516398202761241756523371641512710277324257
200616678202651248846698872811511310356625468
200716982204271256966876170121520510435326554
200817075204091256527065268581517410439627858
200917043205241255657266863901497110374229040
201016901210471252907459159061502810294030014
201116774214231247047671657271527010174430876
201216984217991243148018758231546210125332437

Age Group 25-54 Key Facts

  • In 2007 the civilian population was 125,652,000 
  • In 2007 the labor force was 104,353,000
  • In 2012 the civilian population was 124,314,000
  • In 2012 the labor force was 101,253,000

Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.

Simply put, the decrease in civilian population in age group 25-54 was 1,340,000. The decrease in the labor force was a staggering 3,100,000!

Let's explore this idea in still more detail looking at employment, unemployment, and non-employment.

Spotlight on Age Group 25-54

Year25-54 CP25-54 LF25-54 Employed25-54 Not Employed25-54 Unemployed
200012065610139398292223643102
200112160410178997948236563842
200212207710171996823252544896
200312328910230997178261115131
200412341010212297472259384650
200512417510277398517256584256
200612488410356699672252123894
2007125696104353100450252463904
200812565210439699369262835027
200912556510374295144304218597
201012529010294094082312088858
201112470410174493674310308069
201212431410125394150301647103

Notes

  1. Unemployment is the difference between employment and the labor force. 
  2. Not-employed is the difference between employment and the civilian population. 
  3. Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables. 
  4. There may be rounding errors.

More Key Facts For Age Group 25-54

  • Between 2007 and 2012 the civilian population declined by 1,340,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 the labor force declined by 3,100,000
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment fell from 100,450,000 to 94,150,000.
  • Between 2007 and 2012 employment declined by 6,300,000 jobs on a mere decrease in the civilian population of 1,340,000!

Let's take a look at the above table in chart form.

Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed, Not-Employed 



click on chart for sharper image

Irrefutable Evidence Falling Employment Not Based on Boomer Demographics

This plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 is irrefutable proof that the drop in employment and the falling participation rate is not based on aging boomer demographics.

By calculation, 4,960,000 jobs (6,300,000 - 1,340,000) simply vanished into thin air (in age group 25-54 alone).

Thus, the plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 also provides strong evidence the stated unemployment rate of 7.8% is bogus by a more sensible measure of unemployment.

Better Measure of Unemployment

I propose this simple definition: If you want a job, are physically able to work a job, and you don't have a job, then you are unemployed.

Actual measures are purposely defined to hide the true state of the economy.

For a close scrutiny of the latest jobs report, please see Establishment Survey +155,000 Jobs; Household Survey +28,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Revised Up, Flat Since September

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obama's Chance to Do Something Right: Nominate Hagel for Secretary of Defense; Why the War Party Fears Hagel

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 05:43 PM PST

The Financial Time reports Hagel nomination expected this week.
US President Barack Obama is poised to nominate Chuck Hagel as secretary of defence, setting the stage for a tough nomination fight focusing on the former Republican senator's views on Israel and Iran.

The announcement by Mr Obama of a new Pentagon chief to replace Leon Panetta could come as early as Monday, administration officials indicated. Mr Obama returned from a holiday in Hawaii on Sunday.

Mr Hagel's possible nomination has caused an uproar among neoconservatives over his questioning of sanctions and military action against Iran and his statement that a "Jewish lobby" intimidates Congress.

Many Democrats have been unenthusiastic as well, because he is a Republican and over a past statement criticising a Clinton-era diplomatic appointment as "openly, aggressively gay".

But the criticism has been especially virulent from the right, with Israel conservatives labelling him borderline anti-Semitic and suggesting he was intent in making dangerously deep cuts to the defence budget.

Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina and a prominent defence hawk, said on Sunday he was inclined not to support his former Senate colleague because of his "antagonistic" attitude to Israel.

"This is an in-your-face nomination by the president for all those who are supportive of Israel," Mr Graham told CNN.
Got That?

Democrats don't want Hagel simply because Hagel is a Republican. The Republicans do not want him because he is not a war-monger.

That's what this whole thing boils down to.

Why the War Party Fears Hagel

Let's fill in the details with a look at Why the War Party Fears Hagel
Who is Chuck Hagel?

Born in North Platte, Neb., he was a squad leader in Vietnam, twice wounded, who came home to work in Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign, was twice elected U.S. senator, and is chairman of the Atlantic Council and co-chair of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.

To The Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, however, Hagel is a man "out on the fringes," who has a decade-long record of "hostility to Israel" and is "pro-appeasement-of-Iran."

Hagel's enemies contend that his own words disqualify him.

First, he told author Aaron David Miller that the "Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up there" on the Hill. Second, he urged us to talk to Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran. Third, Hagel said several years ago, "A military strike against Iran ... is not a viable, feasible, responsible option."

Hagel has conceded he misspoke in using the phrase "Jewish lobby." But as for a pro-Israel lobby, its existence is the subject of books and countless articles. When AIPAC sends up to the Hill one of its scripted pro-Israel resolutions, it is whistled through. Hagel's problem: He did not treat these sacred texts with sufficient reverence.

"I am a United States senator, not an Israeli senator," he told Miller. "I support Israel. But my first interest is I take an oath ... to the Constitution of the United States. Not to a president. Not to a party. Not to Israel. If I go run for Senate in Israel, I'll do that."

Hagel puts U.S. national interests first. And sometimes those interests clash with the policies of the Israeli government.
Chuck Hagel allies launch counter-attack

Politico reports Chuck Hagel allies launch counter-attack.
Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, said Hagel "has a very broad view of American foreign policy and the role in the world. He is very judicious, and he has an outstanding record as a senator, which gives him the knowledge and background to understand about the sometimes fractious relationship between the Congress, especially the Senate, and the administration."

"He got two Purple Hearts on the front lines," Scowcroft added. "That's about the best recommendation you can get from somebody whose job would be to advise on the use of troops around the world. I am honestly surprised, even astonished, at the attacks. I do know where they're coming from, but I don't understand the genesis of them.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a former Army Ranger who serves on the Armed Services Committee and has traveled to war zones with Hagel, said: "Every man and woman in uniform in the Pentagon and across the world will know that he's not only talked the talk, he's walked the walk. … He also has a successful business record. He is an entrepreneur who's succeeded.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, forcefully defended Hagel on MSNBC's "Morning Joe": "Unlike some of his critics, … he has fought for his country. He has been wounded for this country. He is a man who knows what war is like."
Nonviable Options

I support anyone willing to make this statement "A military strike against Iran ... is not a viable, feasible, responsible option." vs. anyone not willing to make the same statement.

A military strike on Iran would be idiotic, and I have no doubt one would have happened had Romney been elected.

It remains to be see if Obama can get this right. However,  Hagel as Secretary of Defense would be a step in the right direction.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

The Bears' Prayer

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 09:58 AM PST

Given the Chicago Bears were put out of their misery last week, missing the playoffs I offer this prayer for 2013

Our Papabear
Who art in heaven
Hallas be thy name
We're havin' no fun
Cause we sure play dumb
At home as we do away
Give us this season
Coach Lovie's Leavin'
And forgive us you must
As we forgive those, scoring big against us
And lead us not into the playoffs
But deliver us from Cutler
Amen

I wrote that in 1997 and only needed to change a few words. Back then it was

Give us this season
Dave Wanstedt's Leavin'

In 1997 I ended with "deliver us from the Packers"

Since Lovie is gone, part of the prayer has been realized already. Fans still await much needed delivery from Cutler.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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