Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Mercy! Isn’t a Late Day Selloff Illegal?
- European PMI Retail Sales Collapse: Near-Record Drop in Italy Retail Sales; French Retail Sales Drop 9th Consecutive Month; Germany Retail Sales Back in Contraction
- Four Strikes Is An Out; Obama Proposes Last Minute "Mini Deal" Essentially Scrapping All Cutbacks, While Adding Milk Lobby Bonus
- France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges
- Japan Manufacturing PMI Downturn Accelerates; Output and New Orders Suffer Sharpest Contractions for 20 Months; Cheaper Yen Cannot Save Japan
Mercy! Isn’t a Late Day Selloff Illegal? Posted: 28 Dec 2012 01:48 PM PST I hope you are as outraged as I am by this late-day stock market action. S&P 500 Futures 10-Minute Chart Since when is a late day selloff legal? And for an entire hour with six consecutive red candles! And in the month of December too! What happened to my Santa Rally? I demand a Congressional inquiry. Goodness! I was sure such action was illegal. Clearly, it should be illegal, and I thought it was already. It's no wonder Fiscal Cliff legislation failed. Republicans and Democrats alike forgot to pass circuit-breaker provisions to halt (or better yet prevent) market declines late in the day, as well as this late in the year. Please call your Senators and Representatives today, demanding their immediate attention on this matter. After all, everyone knows that jobs and fiscal prudence are irrelevant. It's the stock market that's vital to the economy. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 28 Dec 2012 12:58 PM PST Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices in Italy, France, and Germany, the three largest Eurozone economies. Earlier today I took a look at France. For details, please see France Economic Implosion Underway; French Retail Sales Contract 9th Consecutive Month as Cost Inflation Surges. This article will look at Germany and Italy, the first and third biggest eurozone economies. Italy The Markit Italy Retail PMI® shows Steep downturn in high street spending continues in December. Key points:Germany The Markit Germany Retail PMI® shows Retail PMI hits lowest level for eight months. Key points:Italy Implosion Continues Note that high street spending is in its twenty-second consecutive month of contraction. Also note (and laugh at) the blame placed on "media scaremongering". Germany Back in Contraction German retail spending is back in contraction and this time I expect it to stay there, while laughing at the blame placed on "unfavourable weather conditions and unexpectedly low consumer footfall". Signs point to a full-blown eurozone recession that is worsening nearly every month. Germany cannot possibly be immune from this and indeed I blasted the IMF for proposing just that on January 9, 2012 in Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year" "The idea Germany may avoid a recession is silly enough. The idea Europe may avoid a recession is downright idiotic." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 28 Dec 2012 11:25 AM PST The one thing I am always afraid of in budget negotiations is that virtually nothing is done, or worse yet, something counterproductive is done. Obama's latest Fiscal Cliff "Mini-Deal" Proposal is exactly the kind of counterproductive nonsense I am talking about. Assuming the above Atlantic Wire article is correct ...
Four Strikes Is An Out I am against all four ideas and it's hard to say which one is worse. Certainly we need to scrap all farm subsidies, not put back those that have been scrapped. Hopefully the House punts this ball a mile high, or better yet, let's hope this does not clear the Senate in the first place. Purportedly the deal would only be for 60-90 days which would in all likelihood do nothing but allow further watering down of the proposal in yet another can-kicking exercise at that time. Since the market is not blasting higher on this preposterous idea, it's safe to assume this deal is Dead-on-Arrival in the House, if it were to get there. As I have said on numerous occasions, the best offer on the table is to let the alleged "fiscal cliff" happen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 28 Dec 2012 09:00 AM PST Inquiring minds are noting the expected (at least in this corner) collapse in European retail sales as measured by PMI indices. The spotlight for this post is France, the second largest Eurozone economy following Germany. The Markit France Retail PMI® shows French retail sales fall for ninth consecutive month. Key points:France Economic Implosion Underway Retail sales in France fell for the 9th consecutive month, a new record. Deterioration is marked as well as expected. Because of the sharp rise in inflation, things are even worse than they look at first glance of the PMI numbers. The horrendous policies from president Francois Hollande and his socialist cronies including ridiculous tax hikes and inane rules on firing workers are going to cause massive heartburn (to put things mildly). I have to laugh at the comment by Markit that "low customer footfall had contributed to the drop in sales". Nearly as amusing, note that retailers expect "increased sales because of cold weather." For further reading, please consider economically insane proposal by French president Francois Hollande "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" Given that any clear-thinking person should quickly realize that if companies cannot fire workers they will be extremely reluctant to hire them in the first place , it should be no surprise to discover French Unemployment Highest in 14 Years (And It's Going to Get Much Worse). In France, Government spending amounts to 55% of total domestic output. For discussion, please see Hollande's Honeymoon is Over; 54% of Voters Unhappy; Unions Promise "War" in September. Looking ahead to 2013, I Expect things in France to get worse at an accelerated pace. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 28 Dec 2012 04:03 AM PST The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Downturn of manufacturing sector accelerated during December. Key points:Cheaper Yen Cannot Save Japan Nearly every day someone sends me an email stating Japan's manufacturing and export machine will pick up with a falling yen. Will it? Why? Japan is in an economic war with China over disputed islands so that part of Japan's export business is dead, and will remain dead. In isolation, a falling Yen will help Japanese exports to Europe. However, Europe is in a severe, as well as worsening recession, so a falling Yen alone will not revive sales. In the US, car buyers are not as in love with Japanese cars as they once were, and the US has its own share of problems in a weakening if not outright recessionary economy. Finally, a falling Yen will exacerbate Japan's energy problems as Japan is totally dependent on imports to meet its energy needs. Japan wants inflation, but this is a strong case of "be careful of what you ask, because you may get it". Inflation is likely to destroy Japan, the real question is "when". For more on Japan, please see
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