Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Real Estate Sales Collapse in Paris and Ile-de-France; New Home Starts Lowest Since 1998; VAT Hike to Make Matters Much Worse Posted: 17 Nov 2012 05:13 PM PST Mainstream media offers little on the stunning collapse of real estate sales in France, notably Paris and Ile-de-France. Via Google translate, please consider Real Estate November 2012: figures for the month. Here are a few translate-unedited snips. 2012 will remain a very bad year for real estate professionals. In this comprehensive figures on the property market in November 2012, discover the sharp decline in real estate sales in Paris and Ile-de-France. Even in Paris, it becomes difficult to sell a property Notaries in Paris / Ile-de-France note that even in their region very attractive it becomes difficult to sell a property . Between June and August 2012, it has sold "only" 35,000 existing homes, or 19% compared to the same period in 2011. Through the preliminary contracts, that is to say, the sales agreement signed but the sale is not yet final, notaries noted an accentuation of the decrease in sales in September 2012. To believe the figures MeilleursAgents which figure barometer advanced compared to the figures of notaries, there are currently -30 to -40% of sales in Paris and the Ile-de-France. Borrowing rates are low, borrowers are scarce The mortgage rates continue to fall slightly in November 2012 . That makes 8 months in a row that interest rates fall. Loans for short periods have the largest declines compared to last month. On loans granted in October 2012, the average rate is 3.37% and the duration of payments is 207 months. Despite these cheap rates, mortgage demand plunges more now. The Observatory Housing Credit CSA announces -45.8% in October 2012 compared to the same month of the previous year. This accentuates the fall of -30.5% of mortgages in the first 9 months of 2012. Starts of new homes in the third quarter of 2012 recorded their lowest level since 1998 Only 66,932 new dwelling units have been started in the third quarter of 2012. This is the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2012. This represents a decrease of 17.3% compared to the same period in 2011. VAT at 10% instead of 7% for the building in 2014? The maintenance and renovation of housing more than two years are subject to reduced VAT under certain conditions. After passage of the VAT rate in the building from 5.5% to 7% in 2012, the government expects an increase in the VAT rate to 10% through. Blazing Stupidity Hiking the VAT in face of falling demand is blazing stupidity. Apparently a VAT hike is an expectation rather than a done deal, but given other examples of stunning stupidity from France, including tax hikes and the Economically Insane Proposal: "Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It" one should expect no less from French president Francois Hollande. For more examples of things about to wreck France, please consider "Google Law" Yet Another Warped Policy by Hollande; Government Motors French Style Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Lagarde Says Greece Deal Should be "Rooted in Reality"; Mish Says Lagarde Should be "Rooted in Reality" Posted: 17 Nov 2012 09:56 AM PST Today's case of the "pot calling the kettle is black" comes from IMF chief Christine Lagarde in a warning to Brussels nannycrats and the ECB Greek deal should be "rooted in reality" An agreement among Greece's international creditors on reducing its large debt pile should be "rooted in reality and not in wishful thinking," the head of the International Monetary Fund said ahead of a tense meeting with European leaders. "I am always trying to be constructive but I am driven by two objectives," she said in an interview, "to build and approve a program for Greece that is solid, that is convincing today, that will be sustainable tomorrow, that is rooted in reality and not in wishful thinking. Objectives in Conflict The problem for the IMF, Germany, the nannycrats in Brussels, ECB, and Greece is the "objective" of keeping Greece in the eurozone is one of the things destroying Greece. It is wishful thinking that Greece is going to stay in the eurozone. I am all for a large dose of "reality" but the objectives of the Troika and the nannycrats in Brussels does not permit reality. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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