| Top Secret Spacecraft Returns to Earth This Week After Two Years in Space; Rods From God Posted: 14 Oct 2014 06:16 PM PDT A US Air Force X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle has been in space for two years conducting top secret research. Mission
The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, or OTV, is an experimental test program to demonstrate technologies for a reliable, reusable, unmanned space test platform for the U.S. Air Force. The primary objectives of the X-37B are twofold: reusable spacecraft technologies for America's future in space and operating experiments which can be returned to, and examined, on Earth.
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The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle is the newest and most advanced re-entry spacecraft. Based on NASA's X-37 design, the unmanned OTV is designed for vertical launch to low Earth orbit altitudes where it can perform long duration space technology experimentation and testing. Upon command from the ground, the OTV autonomously re-enters the atmosphere, descends and lands horizontally on a runway. The X-37B is the first vehicle since NASA's Shuttle Orbiter with the ability to return experiments to Earth for further inspection and analysis, but with an on-orbit time of 270 days, the X-37B can stay in space for much longer.
Technologies being tested in the program include advanced guidance, navigation and control, thermal protection systems, avionics, high temperature structures and seals, conformal reusable insulation, lightweight electromechanical flight systems, and autonomous orbital flight, reentry and landing. X-37B Returns to EarthBloomberg reports Supersecret Spacecraft Comes Back to Earth After Two YearsThe U.S. Air Force has kept an unmanned space shuttle in orbit for the past two years, and it seems no one without security clearance knows what it's been doing up there.
The X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, which can enter orbit and land without human intervention, is scheduled to touch down this week—the best guess is sometime on Tuesday—at Vandenberg Air Force Base, northwest of Santa Barbara, Calif. The landing will mark completion of the program's third and longest mission, which was launched on Dec. 11, 2012. The Air Force has two such spacecraft for these low-earth orbit missions, all of which are classified, as are the precise launch and landing times.
"The mission is basically top secret," says Captain Chris Hoyler, an Air Force spokesman.
The spacecraft measures 29 feet long and 9.5 feet high, about one-fifth the size of the retired NASA space shuttles that seem to have inspired its appearance. It has a payload bay that opens in space, just like the larger space shuttles.
The X-37B "is clearly a military program that no one has necessarily felt the need to justify politically," says Laura Grego, a senior scientist in the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. She says the spacecraft's likely missions could probably be handled by satellites and other platforms at lower cost to taxpayers.
Marco Caceres, a space analyst with Teal Group, says the Air Force is most likely interested in having a surveillance platform that can "maneuver in orbit faster" than satellites. Darpa is also working on a new hypersonic "spaceplane" called the XS-1 that could offer quick access to space and launch payloads into orbit for less than $5 million per flight. "Quick, affordable, and routine access to space is increasingly critical for U.S. Defense Department operations," the agency said in its call for proposals for the spacecraft late last year.
As with many top-secret Pentagon programs, speculation has flourished online about what the government is doing with the spacecraft. Theories range from surveillance to, well, more surveillance involving satellites that are so secretive they can only be released in space. Others have suggested the craft is the platform for a new generation of kinetic weapons that can be used from space. XB-37 Image Rods From GodBloomberg linked to a Popular Science article Rods from God depicting "Space-launched darts that strike like meteors".  Clearly we need more ways to kill each other from space because we are too inefficient here. Besides, government spending adds directly to GDP. So after we complete the mission on earth, we can bomb the heck out of Mars. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Stock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat? Posted: 14 Oct 2014 10:41 AM PDT Variant Perception has an interesting post out today on stock market buybacks: Pillars of Equity Rally Fall Away. Stock buybacks have been an important feature of the equity rally. Companies have used low rates and easy credit to borrow money and used it to buy their own shares back. An identity for a company's share price is: S = (revenues * margins * P/E) / # of shares. Buying back shares reduces the denominator in this equation, thus (all other things equal) boosting the stock price. But buybacks are waning; the chart below shows a 27% decline in buybacks between 1Q14 and 2Q14. YoY it is down 1.6%. (Interestingly, the peak in buybacks was also the peak in the US stock market in 2007.) -
Revenues are closely linked to nominal GDP, and our US leading indicator sees this as lacklustre at best going forward. Margins we have discussed in previous reports. Our leading indicator for wages has turned up, and this tends to lead to lower profit margins. Finally, multiple expansion has been a big driver of equity returns in 2012 and 2013, accounting for about 75% of returns. However, already in 2014 it is slipping, down from 67% in May to under 50% today (chart below). In short, the pillars of equity performance are crumbling, making it difficult to see how equities can remain supported between now and into early next year.
 Conventional Wisdom vs. RealityConventional wisdom says earnings growth is the primary driver for stock performance. It's not. The price investors are willing to pay for stocks is the key driver. In 2012 nearly 70% of share price increases were due to willingness of investors to accept higher PEs. In 2013, nearly 80% of the stock market rally is attributable to higher PEs. Shiller 10-Year PE Following the massive rally over the past several years, stocks are at one of the highest 10-year smoothed PEs in history exceeded only by the bubbles in 2000, 2007, and 1929. For a description of the methodology, please see 'P/E 10 Ratio'Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Australian Dollar Too High, Markets Face 'Violent' Crash, says RBA Official Posted: 14 Oct 2014 09:37 AM PDT In June of 2011 it took about $1.10 to buy an Australian dollar. Today it takes about 87 cents. In the game of competitive currency debasement that's not low enough for Guy Debelle, a Reserve Bank of Australia official. Debelle says Markets Face 'Violent' Crash, Australian Dollar Too HighReserve Bank assistant governor Guy Debelle has warned against a 'violent' market crash while reiterating the Australian dollar is overvalued.
Speaking at the Citi Annual Australian and New Zealand investment conference in Sydney, Dr Debelle said the Australian dollar was still too high despite falling by about six per cent against the US dollar in September.
"The Australian dollar has depreciated in recent weeks, but on a tradeweighted basis is only back to levels of earlier in the year," he said.
Citing the 1994 global bond market crash as a "good example," Dr Debelle said there were several reasons to suspect that the next sell-off, particularly in fixed income, "could be relatively violent when it comes".
Dr Debelle said heightened tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, uncertainty about US monetary policy and about the direction of Europe and Japan, and concern about the strength of the Chinese economy would normally be sufficient to push volatility measures much higher.
Mr Debelle said he struggled to explain investor complacency."One thing which is certain is that the low volatility will not persist." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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