30.4.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


3D Printer Builds 10 Small Houses a Day for $5,000 Each

Posted: 30 Apr 2014 11:58 AM PDT

Chinese construction firms can 3-D print 10 low-cost houses a day with machines that add layer after layer of quick-drying cement in a process called "contour crafting".
A private company in east China recently used a giant printer set to print out ten full-sized houses within just one day.

The stand-alone one-story houses in the Shanghai Hi-Tech Industrial Park look just like ordinary buildings. They were created using an intelligent printing array in east China's city of Suzhou.

The array consists of four printers that are 10 meters wide and 6.6 meters high and use multi-directional automated sprays. The sprays emit a combination of cement and construction waste that is used to print building walls layer-by-layer.

Ma Yihe, the inventor of the printers, said he and his team are especially proud of their core technology of quick-drying cement. Ma said he hopes his printers can be used to build skyscrapers in the future.

This technology allows for the printed material to dry rapidly. Ma has been cautious not to reveal the secrets of this technology.
MarketWatch provides this image of the 33 foot wide by 22 foot tall building.



To label aesthetics as "unappealing" would be a huge understatement. But what do you expect for a house that costs $5,000?

2,500 Sq Ft Printed Home

Using similar technology, and larger printers, MSN notes 3D Printer Can Build 2,500 Square Foot House in 24 Hours.


The University of Southern California is testing a giant 3D printer that could be used to build a whole house in under 24 hours.

Professor Behrokh Khoshnevis has designed the giant robot that replaces construction workers with a nozzle on a gantry, this squirts out concrete and can quickly build a home according to a computer pattern. It is "basically scaling up 3D printing to the scale of building," says Khoshnevis. The technology, known as Contour Crafting, could revolutionise the construction industry.

As Khoshnevis points out, if you look around you pretty much everything is made automatically these days – "your shoes, your clothes, home appliances, your car. The only thing that is still built by hand are these buildings."



"It's a CAD/CAM solution," says Khoshnevis. The buildings are "designed on computer and built by a computer". Contour Crafting hopes to generate "entire neighbourhoods built at a fraction of the cost, in a fraction of the time, far more safely, and with architectural flexibility that is unprecedented."

The Contour Crafting solution also produces much stronger structures than traditional building methods. According to Contour Crafting the tested wall is a 10,000PSI (pounds per square inch) strength compared to an average of 3,000PSI for a regular wall.

They would not be as homogenous as the suburbs, says Khoshnevis, because "every [Contour Crafted] building can be different. They do not have to look like track houses because all you have to do is change a computer program" to get a completely different house.

Because the buildings are printed with a nozzle, they can also be far more creative than current constructions. "The walls can be curved" says Khoshnevis and "you can have very exotic architectural features without incurring additional costs."

Will builders be out of work?

What the implications are for builders is, of course, a major concern. Building and construction has largely escaped the construction line automation of other industries and remains solid employment for millions worldwide. According to the International Labour Organisation construction employs nearly 110 million people worldwide and "plays a major role in combating the high levels of unemployment and in absorbing surplus labour from the rural areas."

That's a lot of people Contour Crafting could make redundant, which raises the question of whether the system could do more harm than good.
Contour Crafting

The idea that such technology would do more harm than good is of course preposterous. Falling prices and improved productivity should always be welcome. With this technology, we can easily build "affordable homes".

Here is an interesting video on the "contour crafting" process.



Improvements in technology inevitably raise standards of living. Curiously, people are concerned about it. Central banks will even attempt to fight it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Separatism Spreads; Kiev Admits Losing Grip in Eastern Ukraine; Putin Threatens to Retaliate Against Sanctions

Posted: 30 Apr 2014 10:19 AM PDT

Pro-Russia forces seized administration buildings in Horlivka today forcing Kiev to admit reality. Please consider Kiev Admits Losing Grip in Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine's acting president on Wednesday admitted that government authorities had lost control of the eastern Donetsk and Lugansk provinces to separatists, and said the challenge now was to "prevent terrorism from spreading to other regions".

Oleksandr Turchynov also warned that pro-Russian groups were planning "subversive acts" in six other eastern and southern Ukrainian regions during Thursday's May Day holiday, formerly one of the biggest events in the Soviet calendar for mass marches.

In Lugansk, capital of Ukraine's easternmost province, gunmen were on Wednesday in control of several government buildings after easily overpowering them late on Tuesday, using weapons and explosives from the state security headquarters, which they seized control of earlier this month.

Lugansk's regional administration building was also in separatist hands after a crowd easily seized control on Tuesday from police, who remained in the building and surrendered control. Residents of the depressed mining city, population 450,000, approached men guarding the building with gifts of cigarettes.

"We saw policemen in anti-riot gear guarding the building, but they didn't put up any resistance to the occupiers," Andrea Cellino, leader of an Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe monitoring team in Lugansk who witnessed Tuesday's government building takeover. "The population is mostly either sympathetic or openly supports the occupiers and their motives."
Ukraine Vows to Stanch Separatism

Bloomberg reports Ukraine Vows to Stanch Separatism as Militants Spread
Ukraine's acting president vowed to create a special police force to staunch the spread of separatism in the country's east, vowing to overcome unrest he says is stoked by Russia and hold an election slated for May 25.

As part of a creeping campaign by pro-Russian militants across Ukraine's east, armed men seized government buildings in the city of Horlivka today, while news service Unian reported a member of the Donetsk electoral commission was kidnapped by "terrorists." The U.S. and EU say Putin's government is helping the separatists to destabilize the country of 45 million people in the run-up to next month's presidential ballot in their worst standoff with Russia since the Cold War.

"Our first and main task is to prevent the spread of the terrorist threat to other regions," Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said in Kiev today. "Because there is a real threat of Russia starting a continental war, our army is on full combat alert."

About 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than 10 cities in eastern Ukraine, according to the country's Interior Ministry. About 20 seized the Horlivka city council and regional police headquarters today, Interfax said. Yesterday, hundreds of activists wielding sticks and waving Russian flags stormed the Luhansk regional administration.
Putin Threatens to Retaliate Against Sanctions

Europe wants to "do something" as long as it does not cost anything, an impossible challenge. For example, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said today that officials should make sure any future actions don't harm the European economy.

Meanwhile, Putin Threatens to Retaliate for Sanctions.
President Vladimir Putin's threats to retaliate for further sanctions on Russia set the stage for escalating economic warfare that may have painful effects for U.S. and European companies.

"I would expect Putin to make life somewhat difficult for foreign companies in Russia whose governments are doing the sanctioning," said Gary Hufbauer, a sanctions specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. 

Putin's warning yesterday of consequences for U.S. and European companies came hours after the EU announced new measures over the crisis in Ukraine. His comments took aim at the interests of companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), which has drilling rights to 11.4 million net acres (46,134 square kilometers) in Russia, the company's biggest single cache of drilling rights outside the U.S. Exxon also is planning Arctic drilling in an alliance with state-owned OAO Rosneft.

"The Russian government has already proposed some retaliatory steps," Putin said at a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council summit in Minsk. "I consider these not necessary. But if something like this continues, then of course we will have to consider who's working and how in the Russian Federation, in the key sectors of the Russian economy, including energy."

Hufbauer said in an interview that Putin's response is likely to be limited, because any pain he inflicts on Russia's trade partners and investors can boomerang on him. "I don't think he'll over-escalate, but he'll show he can play the sanctions game, as well."

Economic retaliation by Putin -- whether punishing foreign investors or cutting off gas exports to Europe -- would rebound back to Russia, harming its $2 trillion economy more than the $16.8 trillion U.S. economy or the EU's $17.4 trillion gross domestic product, according to Michael Corgan, a professor of international relations at Boston University.
Negative Sum Game

I don't think it is at all clear that Russia would lose more than Europe if it shuts off gas, but it is clear that both Europe and Russia would suffer.

If the US turns the screws hard enough, Russia will respond in some fashion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japan Output and New Orders Decline at Fastest Pace Since 2012; Abenomics in Review

Posted: 29 Apr 2014 11:51 PM PDT

Abenomics said Japanese stimulus efforts would offset tax hikes. I disagreed. Although one month is not proof, Markit reports Japanese Output and New Orders Decline For First Time in 14 Months Following Tax Hike
Key points:

Output falls at fastest pace since December 2012
New orders also down; exports decline slightly
Rate of job creation accelerates to highest since February 2007

Summary: Japanese manufacturing firms saw a decline in output for the first time in 14 months in April. Alongside this fall in output was a deterioration in new orders which also decreased for the first time in 14 months. In both cases, firms linked the reductions to the rise in the sales tax.

The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™ ) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single - figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy – posted at 49.4 in April, down from 53.9 in March. This was the first time in 14 months that the Japanese manufacturing sector saw a deterioration in business conditions. Output fell to the greatest extent seen since December 2012.

The main contributor according to anecdotal evidence was a decline in demand. Indeed, similar to output, new orders decreased, with evidence suggesting the increase in the sales tax was the main factor behind lower new orders, as clients had brought forward purchases in March to avoid paying additional costs the following month.
Japan Manufacturing PMI



Abenomics in Review

One month does not present a complete picture. However, Abenomics has so far resulted in a declining Japanese balance of trade, inflation (foolishly wanted), little to no increase in exports, and soaring import costs (especially food and energy).

For those results, many leading world economists think prime minister Shinzo Abe is a hero. In contrast, I think he is a fool.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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