Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Black Friday Roundup: Walmart has 10M Transactions in 4 Hrs; Exhausted Shoppers Head Home; Fights Break Out at Walmart; Real Fight is Online
• Texas Welfare Recipient Says "Working is Stupid"
• France Minister of Industrial Renewal has New Target in his Sights
• 25% of Spanish Would Consider Leaving Spain for Economic Reasons; But Where Would They Go?

Black Friday Roundup: Walmart has 10M Transactions in 4 Hrs; Exhausted Shoppers Head Home; Fights Break Out at Walmart; Real Fight is Online Posted: 29 Nov 2013 06:20 PM PST In some locations, people pushed, shoved, and fought their way through the shopping aisles. In other locations, traffic was normal. All in all, I suspect people once again bought more junk they do not need and cannot afford. Here is a sampling of the news. Walmart Processes 10 Million Transactions in 4 Hours The New York Times reports Exhausted Shoppers Head Home, Replaced by the Next Wave. While some malls across the country were busy during the traditional postholiday shopping on Friday, the crowds at others seemed sparse to some regular customers, who compared them to a regular weekend's atmosphere. Perhaps it's possible that the earlier Thanksgiving hours and the increase in online shopping — with so many e-tailers offering competitive deals — had lessened the desire to peruse racks of clothes inside some physical stores. Still, customers sensed there were deals to be had on both days, and parking lots at some malls were jammed again on Friday. On both Friday and Thursday, some customers complained about their fellow shoppers. Holly Schneider, another shopper at the Leesburg outlets, said prices were far better than consumer behavior. "People are rude, just really rude," Mrs. Schneider said. "There's no personal space. It's like you're not even there. They're bumping into you, knocking you down. They don't see you. They see where they're going." IPad Airs and several televisions sold out on Target.com by midmorning on Thursday. Walmart announced that the company had sold 1.4 million tablets on Thanksgiving Day. Walmart also said it had processed more than 10 million transactions at its registers from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. Thursday, including lower-tech items like nearly two million dolls. Over all, online sales were up nearly 10 percent over last year by Black Friday afternoon, according to IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark. Walmart Black Friday Fight What would Black Friday be without a fight?  Link if video does not play: Wal-Mart Black Friday Fight Real Fight Was Online The Wall Street Journal reports On Black Friday, the Real Fight Was Online. Brick-and-mortar retailers mounted a furious defense on Black Friday to head off incursions into one of the industry's biggest shopping days by such online rivals as Amazon.com Inc. The tactics were evident in stores and on websites as millions of holiday shoppers lined up to spend their dollars on highly touted deals. Chains like Macy's Inc. opened on Thanksgiving for the first time, and giants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target moved their deals earlier Thursday, shifts intended to retrieve valuable shopping time that had been ceded to e-commerce, where the doors never close. Best Buy Co. kept some deals hidden until customers showed up at stores, and retailers put more deals on the Web to better compete with Amazon on its own playing field. In the early predawn hours of Thanksgiving, Jason Goldberger huddled with his team on the 20th floor of a Target Corp. building in Minneapolis to make sure everything was ready at the chain's most important store: Target.com. Mr. Goldberger, who runs Target's website and mobile business, arrived at 2 a.m., His staff split into two conference rooms. One held a technology team responsible for the workings of the site. The other had people comparing Target's deals with offers from Amazon.com and Walmart.com. Such big retailers as Wal-Mart and Target continue to struggle to keep up with Amazon on the Web. Despite years of effort, online sales still typically account for only around 2% of sales for the two chains. But both companies are investing heavily to catch up. Target expects to spend more on technology next year than it does building and upgrading new stores. This year, it made virtually all of its Black Friday deals available online. Store chains used rolling discounts to keep shoppers lingering and competitors' guessing. On Friday at 8 a.m. Wal-Mart started "Manager's Specials," which included unannounced promotions set by individual store managers who received a set budget to spur sales. Flagging bargains too early risks having competitors match or beat prices. Market Track LLC, which tracks pricing on the Web, said Best Buy had advertised a Samsung gas range for $699 in its Black Friday flier. On Wednesday, Sears dropped its price for the oven to $599. By Thursday, Best Buy and hhgregg Inc. had matched the lower price. It's far too early to tell if stores actually did better than last year or not. The answer depends on what people bought: loss leader sales items, stuff in general, or high-markup items. According to a couple of close friends, store traffic was lighter than usual in my area, at least later in the day. I did not venture out personally. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Texas Welfare Recipient Says "Working is Stupid" Posted: 29 Nov 2013 03:18 PM PST Please consider the viewpoint of a 32-year old Austin Texas welfare recipient who says working is stupid because she gets nearly free housing, food stamps, a welfare check, and other handouts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

France Minister of Industrial Renewal has New Target in his Sights Posted: 29 Nov 2013 08:46 AM PST Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Industrial Renewal of France, has a new target in his sights, the French public procurement group UGAP. Here is some background information about UGAP. Montebourg's complaint follows. The Union of Public Purchasing Groups (UGAP), the French public procurement centre operates under the supervision of the Ministries of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Education. UGAP's overall objective is to strengthen the social and environmental performance of public procurement, without increasing the cost of services offered. Alice Piednoir, Sustainable Development Policy Officer & Purchasing Manager, says "We centralise applications and mutualise costs in order to propose offers that are financially successful. We ensure that the inclusion of social and environmental requirements in our bidding do not cause additional costs to the services offered." Montebourg Targets UGAP Over "Made in France" Montebourg is upset that UGAP does not supply enough products made in France, and he threatens to dissolve the group. Via translation from Le Monde, Arnaud Montebourg Targets UGAP Over "Made in France" Arnaud Montebourg has a new target in his sights: UGAP, the main central purchasing agency for state and local communities. UGAP does not provide enough support for French companies in the eyes of the minister of productive recovery . In response, Montebourg threatens to apply for dissolution of the company. "I consider that there is a serious problem with patriotic UGAP ," thundered the minister Tuesday, November 26 , before the presidents of the regions he received at Bercy. UGAP has a global order book except for France . Montebourg is willing to overpay for everything as long as it's made in France. Is it any wonder French government spending accounts for 56% of French GDP, highest in the EU (not that there is anything productive about that setup). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

25% of Spanish Would Consider Leaving Spain for Economic Reasons; But Where Would They Go? Posted: 28 Nov 2013 11:12 PM PST The employment and pay situation in Spain is so bad that 33% struggle to pay their bills. More importantly, 25% would consider leaving the country for better opportunities. Via translation from La Vanguardia, please consider One in three Spaniards have no money after paying their bills. One in three Spanish claims to have no money left after paying the bills, according to a report on consumer payments. The study further reveals that 25% would be think of emigrating because of their economic situation. The same percentage say do not have enough money for a decent life. Those are the most conclusive findings in the study Consumer Payments 2013, made by the Credit Management firm Intrum Justitia which surveyed 10,000 consumers from 21 European countries with the aim of understanding their payment behavior. In regard to Spain, the percentage of citizens who say they have no money after paying the bills is higher than the European average, which stands at 26 percent, although some countries like Greece, Estonia and Hungary reach 40 percent. If they have to prioritize in order to pay bills, the Spaniards choose to pay for the latest mobile phone and internet purchases. And if they can get savings on their household budgets, 79% do so by reducing leisure and clothing  expenses. Another revealing statistic is that 25% of Spaniards say they do not having a sufficient amount of money for a decent life.  Estonia leads this ranking with 52%, followed by Hungary with 47% and Greece with 44%. Eight in ten think that the Government lacks good financial control, compared to an average of 60 percent for the EU. Trapped in Spain 25% would leave for better opportunities, but where would they go? The same question applies to Greece, Portugal, and Estonia. The answer is nowhere. There are too few jobs elsewhere,  and plenty of xenophobia in France and other countries that are struggling as well. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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