16.6.13

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:27 PM PDT

As most of you know, I lost my wife Joanne on May 16 last year to ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease. We were happily married for 27 years.

Joanne's three closest friends, Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie all wanted me to move on, have fun, meet someone and enjoy life. But where does one who is 59 years old find someone?

The bar scene may work for someone 21 to 35. For someone 59, the bar scene is a near-certain strikeout. There are numerous online services but most of the horror stories speak for themselves. I do have a close friend who was "successful" on the exact 100th match.

No thanks.

I decided to try a place called Selective Search. I found them doing a search for executive matching. There are other high-end matching services, but I liked the Selective Search model.

One key difference between Selective Search and other executive matching services is only the men pay. The advantages and disadvantages of such an approach should be obvious. The advantage to men is there are far more women in the system. The advantage to women is they do not pay and thus have nothing to lose.

Selective Search interviews every candidate and they weed out men who are not seriously looking for a relationship; they weed out women who appear to be gold-diggers, and they weed out people with unrealistic goals (for example a 60 year-old overweight man who wants to find a 23-year-old beauty-queen match).

My Criteria

Preferably, I wanted someone with a nice smile and slender build, who likes to travel, likes golf, likes to kayak, and likes to play cards. My "dealbreakers" were smoking, someone with young kids, and someone who wanted more kids.

Liz was my second date, matched personally by "Molly", my Selective Search matchmaker. Liz, 52, had a cutoff age of 55, "but he JUST turned 59" quipped Molly, and Liz decided to take a chance.

We went out for dinner on Saturday, November 3, then again on November 6, Election Day.

Very quickly we started seeing a lot of each other. Since then we bought and decorated a Christmas tree together, have been to Mexico, Mackinaw Island, gone hiking in state parks, went kayaking twice, golf on numerous occasions, and even won two regional duplicate bridge tournaments together.

The odds of quickly finding someone with those interests except via a high-end matching service is about zero percent, no matter how long one looks.




Old Friends, New Friends

Liz and Joanne's closest friends have met, and we have even traveled together, to Mexico. Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie have embraced Liz and vice versa. Kathy, was my "best man" at the wedding.

Meet Liz

Here are some pictures from our two most recent trips.
Click on any image for sharper view.

Sipping Tea on Front Porch of Grand Hotel - Mackinac Island



Mackinac Island Michigan Carriage Ride



Mackinac Island - Fun in Phone Booth



Glen Arbor Michigan - Rhododendrons



Sunset, Sipping Wine at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan



Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Sunset



Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs



Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore - Wild Lilacs



Starved Rock State Park, Utica IL, Waterfall After Spring Rain



Yes, we got wet taking that picture (Liz got soaked while I was fooling around trying to find the best angle), but it was fun. And, life's too short to not have fun with a compatible soulmate.

I am extremely fortunate to have found Liz. And I could not possibly be happier.

We are going on a delayed honeymoon at the end of July and early August in Prague (the capital and largest city of the Czech Republic), Munich Germany, and Rothenburg ob der Tauber (a lovely fairy-tale city on the Romantic Road in Germany). I will post some pictures while there.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Greece Tax Filing Bureaucracy in Action

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 10:00 PM PDT

My friend "Lefteris" reports ..

Greece decided that all tax returns will be filed electronically. 

Great! There is no more standing in line at the tax office to file your tax return. This is probably a problem for some older folks, but arguably it's a step in the right direction.

Unfortunately, you still have to go to the tax office and wait in line with your ID in order to get a "password" to use the new electronic system.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Superman Joins a Union

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 07:34 PM PDT

Inquiring minds may be wondering what would happen if the "Man of Steel" were forced to join a union. The following video explains.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast?

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 11:16 AM PDT

Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD anti-euro party leader) has emailed me several times since Friday about polls conducted by the German tabloid Bild.

Emphasis must be placed on the the word "tabloid" because intellectuals and academics do not tend to read the paper, nor even acknowledge its existence.

Nonetheless, Bild is the number one readership paper in Germany, by far, with about 20 million readers daily. And a poll is a poll, not a slanted news article.

The Bild is not a supporter of AfD in the least. If the poll is pro-Afd biased, it surely was not by the Bild. 

With that backdrop here are a few emails from reader Bernd.

Friday June 14
Hi Mish,

I hope you are well!

Today's "Bild Zeitung" online poll show support for AfD above 20%, way higher than in any official poll.

If the chancellor could be elected directly, Angela Merkel would beat Peer Steinbrück by 63% to 37%. However, we do not elect the Chancellor directly. The party picture is what matters.

Merkel's current coalition (CDU/CSU/FDP) would only get 26% of the vote, not enough for her to remain as Chancellor without support from AfD or SPD.

Interestingly, the Bild did not even mention AfD in any coalition, a possible indication that Bild did not expect AfD to score anything above 5%.

That said, I caution that "Bild online" does not give a representative result for the entire German electorate. It can, at best, give a trend or tendency. The results suggest that AfD might be more popular than let on by German media.

Thank you, Mish, for your excellent observations on many topics not covered properly by other commentators.

Bernd
Saturday, June 15
Hi Mish,

"Bild Online" has decided to repeat the poll again, this time on its home page.

Today's poll follows an article by the "Bild-Federal Government Team", which makes a prediction for the coming elections. Their prediction is that only a CDU/CSU/SPD coalition can be formed – under Merkel's leadership.

However, Steinbrück had made it clear that he won't be available under Merkel's leadership.

The online poll at 8:45 shows 170,000 participants:

CDU/CSU - 37%
AfD - 20%
SPD - 18%
Die Grünen - 06%
Die Linke - 06%
FDP - 05%
Others - 04%
Piraten - 03%

The Bild official prediction is that AfD won't make it into Parliament, due to the 5% barrier.

Bernd
Sunday, June 16
Hi Mish

The poll is now closed and AfD came third with 15%.

This is quite remarkable and would confirm my opinion, that at the moment, AfD has enough support to easily pass the 5% barrier. I told you way back, I see a potential for up to 12% for AfD. I see no need to change my mind at this point.

Bernd
Mish Comments

Online polls can be manipulated but Bernd counters with "To vote several times you need to clear the cache and clear the cookies each time. I guess 99% of Bild online readers do not know how to do that."

Still, the results are not scientific and a few very dedicated people could easily have hijacked the results. However, "could" and "did" are not the same thing.

I see this as very similar to the rise of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) in Italy, where the mainstream media gave M5S no chance, yet M5S ended up as the largest political party in Italy at election time.

If AfD gets as much as 10% of the vote and FDP does not clear the 5% threshold (both are likely), Angela Merkel will not survive the coalition building process or will be dramatically weakened in the process.

Wahl-O-Meter Update 

Wahl-O-Meter shows support for AfD at 7.9% with FPD dropping to 4.5%. With the threshold for parliament participation at 5% it is FPD, not AfD that is on the bubble.

Political Party Explanation

Please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for.

Prediction

I am sticking with my April 23 prediction Merkel Loses Chancellorship in September as Support for AfD Soars

Addendum:

Bernd writes "The poll was done by Bild Online and not the physical tabloid. Bild tabloid has a circulation of about 3 million copies per day with a readership reach of about 12 Million (Bild's own claimed numbers). Each paper is read by 4 people. Pure observation in any train or street car in Germany will confirm this assumption. Between Bild tabloid and Bild Online the readership reach is claimed to be 20 Million. It is difficult to assess how high the online readership truly is, because the numbers come from two different sources."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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