Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Poison Pill and Gold Debate
• Ho Hum - Fiscal Cliff Deal Stalls - Republicans Offer More and More Concessions; Poison Pill Nonsense
• Online Education and College Degrees at Far Lower Prices is the Future; Virtual Classrooms to Reach 1 Billion People

Poison Pill and Gold Debate Posted: 30 Dec 2012 08:15 PM PST In Ho Hum - Fiscal Cliff Deal Stalls - Republicans Offer More and More Concessions; Poison Pill Nonsense I stated ... "The real poison pill is allowing Social Security and Medicare costs to escalate unabated. Does anyone in either party want to admit the truth? ... the best hope still remains that all compromises fail." The above thought prompted Uncle Frank to respond in a comment "Mish relishes chaos and financial ruin for this country so his gold holdings shoot-up in value. Everyone has an ulterior motive you know." Ulterior Motives? Since I get accused of this sort of thing quite frequently, please let me point out a few things: Gold has been sinking, as it should, if Congress is fiscally prudent. Government Should be Prudent Government Won't Be Prudent Should Congress be fiscally prudent (and the fiscal cliff is not close to being fiscally prudent),  I would change my stance on gold in one second flat. Nonetheless, should Congress fail to address the Fiscal Cliff, I would expect the exact opposite of what Uncle Frank suggests. In short, regardless of my personal beliefs regarding gold (that one would be prudent to buy and hold gold), I actually advocate government and Fed policies that are contrary to my recommendations. My reasons are easily explained: Neither the Fed nor the government gives a damn about what is fiscally prudent.  Both the Fed and Congress are highly likely to debase currency, causing gold to rise, even if I think that is bad economic and fiscal policy, which of course I do. Thus the accusations of Uncle Frank, and countless others before him are 100% baseless. Should Congress actually do what I expect, I think it would not be good for gold. I recommend governmental actions on the basis of policy merit alone, not based on my stock market positioning. I find it very sad that few others do the same. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ho Hum - Fiscal Cliff Deal Stalls - Republicans Offer More and More Concessions; Poison Pill Nonsense Posted: 30 Dec 2012 05:03 PM PST Republicans have offered more concessions including an agreement to hike taxes on those making as little as $400,000 (up from the $250,000 sought by Obama). They also backed down on a proposal to slow the growth of Social Security benefits. They may as well throw out the white flag at this point. While I do not know if they reach a compromise today, it appears Senate Republicans are willing to do more than they should. The fact remains this is a pathetic effort by both parties to rein in unsustainable budgets. Please consider Fiscal deal stalls as clock ticks to deadline Efforts to prevent the economy from tumbling over a "fiscal cliff" stalled on Sunday as Democrats and Republicans remained at loggerheads over a deal that would prevent taxes for all Americans from rising on New Year's Day. One hour before they had hoped to present a plan, Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they were still unable to reach a compromise that would stop the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy back into recession. "There are still serious differences between the two sides," said Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid. Progress still appeared possible after the two sides narrowed their differences on tax increases and Republicans indicated they would withdraw a contentious proposal to slow the growth of Social Security retirement benefits. The two sides were close to agreeing to raise taxes on households earning around $400,000 or $500,000 a year - higher than Obama's preferred threshold of $250,000 - several senators told reporters. Republicans aim to pair any tax increase with government spending cuts to benefit programs that are projected to grow ever more expensive as the population ages in coming decades. But their proposal to slow the growth of Social Security benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation met fierce resistance from Democrats. Obama included the proposal, known as "chained CPI," in an earlier proposal, but many of his fellow Democrats remain opposed. 'POISON PILL' "We consider it a poison pill - they know we can't accept it. It is a big step back from where we were on Friday," a Senate Democratic aide said. Poison Pill Nonsense The real poison pill is allowing Social Security and Medicare costs to escalate unabated. Does anyone in either party want to admit the truth? Apparently not, but that is hardly news to anyone with an eighth-grade education in math. As the bargaining continues, it will be up to the House to reject whatever nonsense the Senate comes up with, because if not in December, the Senate will come up with something in January at the current rate of Republican concessions. Every compromise to date leaves the US worse off than if the fiscal cliff happens. Thus, the best hope still remains that all compromises fail. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Online Education and College Degrees at Far Lower Prices is the Future; Virtual Classrooms to Reach 1 Billion People Posted: 29 Dec 2012 11:36 PM PST I received an interesting email from "James in Arizona" today. James offers this comment on online education. Greetings from Arizona, Mish, I ran across this website while exploring various online options for my daughter (in high school, but she's very computer savvy, so I'm looking for options to expand her interests/basis). It is EdX, an online education group started by Harvard and MIT, but other universities are joining. Hopefully this online education program will finally put a torpedo in the expense of college. Have a wonderful New Year, and thanks so much for the effort you put forth on your blog, and educating those like me. James in Arizona Virtual Classrooms to Reach 1 Billion People The above video is a disappointing infomercial, but the courses available are genuine. Here is a sample of free courses offered in the link above. Foundations of Computer graphics Circuits and electronics Artificial intelligence Software as a service Quantum Mechanics and Quantum Computation Introduction to Solid State Chemistry The classes are free but unfortunately you do not get credit hours for them. Eventually you will. The cost of education will come down for the simple reason it has to. The price of college education is not only ridiculous, but unsustainable. The plunge in education costs will likely not happen soon enough to help James' daughter but it most certainly will help those with much younger kids. If you do have kids in high school now, please encourage them to sign up for some of those classes to get a head start. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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