10.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture

Posted: 10 Dec 2014 03:13 PM PST

How to Stop Police Abuse

There's one way and one way only to stop police abuse: Criminally prosecute it, then allow civil penalties.

In a podcast today with Chris Martenson, Chris suggested civil penalties should come straight out of the police retirement fund, not taxpayer pockets.

But as with CIA torture, government does not really want to stop abuse, they want to stop reporting the abuse.

Earlier this year, Illinois passed a law making videotaping of police illegal. However, the Illinois Supreme Curt struck down the law as a violation of free speech.

So what did the Illinois legislature do? They wrote an even worse law.

Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police

Via email from Jacob Huebert, senior attorney at the Liberty Justice Center, the Illinois Policy Institute's free-market public-interest litigation center.
Earlier this year, the Illinois Supreme Court struck down a state eavesdropping law that made it a crime for citizens to record conversations with police or anyone else without the other person's permission. The court held that the old law "criminalize[d] a wide range of innocent conduct" and violated free-speech rights. In particular, the court noted the state could not criminalize recording activities where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy, including citizens' "public" encounters with police.

Now the old law is back, with just a few changes, in a new bill sent to the governor's desk by the Illinois Senate on Dec. 4. The bill not only passed, but did so overwhelmingly with votes of 106-7 in the House on and 46-4-1 in the Senate.

The new version is nearly as bad as the old one.

Under the new bill, a citizen could rarely be sure whether recording any given conversation without permission is legal. The bill would make it a felony to surreptitiously record any "private conversation," which it defines as any "oral communication between 2 or more persons," where at least one person involved had a "reasonable expectation" of privacy.

When does the person you're talking to have a reasonable expectation of privacy? The bill doesn't say. And that's not something an ordinary person can be expected to figure out.

A law must be clear enough for citizens to know in advance whether a particular action is a crime. This bill doesn't meet that standard, which should be reason enough for a court to strike it down if it becomes law.

But lack of clarity isn't the only problem with this bill.



Although it appears to be designed to accommodate the Illinois Supreme Court's ruling striking down the old law, the bill actually is designed to continue to prevent people from recording interactions with police.

The bill says it would only be a crime to record someone where there is a reasonable expectation of privacy, which should mean that recording public encounters with police would not be a crime, and the old law's fatal constitutional flaw would no longer exist.

But the bill doesn't really fix the problem. Again, citizens can't be expected to know for sure precisely which situations give rise to an "expectation of privacy" and which don't. The Illinois Supreme Court said that police don't have an expectation of privacy in "public" encounters with citizens, but it did not explain what counts as a "public" encounter. So if this bill becomes law, people who want to be sure to avoid jail time will refrain from recording police at all, and the law will therefore still effectively prevent people from recording police.

The bill would also discourage people from recording conversations with police by making unlawfully recording a conversation with police – or an attorney general, assistant attorney general, state's attorney, assistant state's attorney or judge – a class 3 felony, which carries a sentence of two to four years in prison. Meanwhile, the bill makes illegal recording of a private citizen a class 4 felony, which carries a lower sentencing range of one to three years in prison.

There's only one apparent reason for imposing a higher penalty on people who record police in particular: to make people especially afraid to record police. That is not a legitimate purpose. And recent history suggests it's important that people not be afraid to record police wherever they perform their duties so that officers will be more likely to respect citizens' rights, and officers who do respect citizens' rights will be able to prove it.

The bill might also provide an excuse to scuttle body cameras for police. Police may argue that using body cameras to record encounters with citizens outside of "public" places would violate the law, as citizens have not consented to being recorded.

We should mention one more thing about this bill. It was introduced on Tuesday, Dec. 2, as an amendment to an existing bill on a completely different subject. The amendment removed all of the bill's previous content and replaced it with the new ban on recording. The House passed it the following day, and the Senate passed it the day after that. So the people who would have cared most about this bill probably didn't notice it in time to object. They might have had their attention focused on other issues that were in the news, such as the recorded police killing of Eric Garner.

Even if this bill were constitutional, it would still be unnecessary and a terrible idea. Most other states allow a person to record a conversation with only one party's consent and don't try to scare people out of recording police by threatening them with felony charges.

Despite its bipartisan support, Gov. Pat Quinn should do one more thing to bolster his legacy before he leaves office and veto this bill.

Jacob Huebert
Senior Attorney, Liberty Justice Center
How to Stop Torture

The way to stop CIA torture is the same as the way to stop police abuse: criminal prosecution.

Obama's fluff statement "we won't let this happen again" will only be believable if it comes with criminal prosecution from the top down, preferably at an international war crimes tribunal.

UN Calls for Prosecution

Yesterday, Ben Emmerson, United Nations Special Rapporteur on counter terrorism and human rights, called for prosecution of CIA officers and other US Government officials.
International law prohibits the granting of immunities to public officials who have engaged in acts of torture. This applies not only to the actual perpetrators but also to those senior officials within the US Government who devised, planned and authorised these crimes.

As a matter of international law, the US is legally obliged to bring those responsible to justice. The UN Convention Against Torture and the UN Convention on Enforced Disappearances require States to prosecute acts of torture and enforced disappearance where there is sufficient evidence to provide a reasonable prospect of conviction. States are not free to maintain or permit impunity for these grave crimes.

It is no defence for a public official to claim that they were acting on superior orders. CIA officers who physically committed acts of torture therefore bear individual criminal responsibility for their conduct, and cannot hide behind the authorisation they were given by their superiors.

However, the heaviest penalties should be reserved for those most seriously implicated in the planning and purported authorisation of these crimes. Former Bush Administration officials who have admitted their involvement in the programme should also face criminal prosecution for their acts.
Dick Cheney and CIA Director are War Criminals

So far, the Only Person Jailed for CIA Torture is Man Who Reported It!

Cheney's defense of torture (see CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Rectal Rehydration, Broken Limbs; 54 Countries Assist US; Dick Cheney War Criminal) makes Cheney and various CIA directors my top choices for prosecution.

Torture Counterproductive

The sad thing about torture is the CIA often gets innocent victims, and torture does not work even when they get the right guy (See US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post).

Today, USAM responded ...
"I am certain torture simply creates more enemies. For example, it's well known that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Al Qaeda #2, went into an Egyptian prison in the early 1980s a simple fundamentalist Muslim, and after years of unspeakable torture (including being tied up and raped by prison dogs), came out a blood-thristy butcher. How many more terrorists has this CIA program created? I shudder to think." 
What does the CIA and the state of Illinois want to do about abuse? Sad answer: Stop reporting abuses, and make it illegal to record them.

Addendum: A Conversation With Friends

I had the following email discussion regarding the Illinois law with two close friends. Seldom are we in complete agreement on things.

First friend: Two words. Rodney King

Second friend, a lawyer: That is one of the dumbest, anti-democratic laws I have ever heard of. In my view, it is unconstitutional. What a bunch of morons.

First Friend: God! All three of us are on the same sheet of music!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spain Seeks €60 Billion of Juncker's Alleged €315 Billion Development Fund; Vaporware Funding

Posted: 10 Dec 2014 01:01 PM PST

Yesterday, Spain Requested €60 Billion of Juncker's Alleged €315 Billion Development Fund.

Via translation from La Vanguardia ...

Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos, said Tuesday that Spain has submitted projects worth around 60 billion euros to the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, who aims to mobilize 315,000 billion euros.

Guindos stressed the priorities for the Government are energy interconnections, transport and R & D. Juncker said the plan is a "key initiative" of the new Commission, "with the appropriate times, quickly and effectively."

Vaporware Funding

Spain wants €60 Billion. How much will France want? Greece? Portugal? Germany? How far will €315 Billion go?

The answer is not far. As I commented on November 24, Juncker's €315bn EU Slush Fund is €299bn Sleight of Hand Magic.
Juncker's €315bn EU Slush Fund looks like this.

95% Leveraged Magic, 5% Fund

  • €16bn from the EU budget
  • €5bn in guarantees from the European Investment Bank (EIB)
  • €299bn is magic.

Supposedly, private money will come up with €299bn based on €5bn in guarantees.

Of course someone has to administer this action plan. So Juncker unveiled a new "investment advisory hub" run by "financial professionals" with direction from the European Commission and EIB.

After padding their own pockets, the group will decide which projects to undertake, no doubt based on kickbacks, bribes, and political favoritism to friends.

To make the deal even sweeter for their political cronies, the EU will offer a "first-loss" guarantee, where the EU money would absorb any initial investment losses in an effort to "crowd in" private investors looking for more secure upside.

Given that it's all funny money anyway, I have a question: Why not provide €50bn in guarantees raising €2.99 trillion in the process?
Leverage Math

Out of a grand total of €16bn from the EU budget, Spain seeks €60 Billion.

Taking into account Juncker's leveraged magic, if Spain got every penny of what it requested, it would get about €3bn from the EU budget. Leverage would provide the other €57 Billion.

That really going to work?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post

Posted: 10 Dec 2014 11:17 AM PST

In response to CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Dick Cheney War Criminal I received an interesting response from a U.S. Army Major.

USAM writes ...
Hi Mish,

Just thought I'd write to share my opinion the recent torture revelations:

"I'm sad and horrified to read the details of the CIA's torture program. To me, it represents the sickest form of consequentialism, one that has run roughshod over any type of moral authority the U.S. can claim in offering its leadership to the world. I'm further upset that my fellow brothers and sisters in uniform will most likely underwrite this disastrous program, as the enemy will now be all too eager to respond in kind to any American serviceman or woman unlucky enough to endure capture. I only wish we had the moral courage to make those responsible accountable for these unmistakable atrocities."

All you've written on the subject is very well said.
US Hypocrisy

That response was unexpected even though USAM has emailed several times before in general agreement with things I have stated. I withheld his name for obvious reasons,  even though USAM did not request me to do so.

For change to happen, it must come from within. Sadly, president Obama cannot lead at all, and Bush-Cheney led us in the wrong direction.

Clearly, CIA torture is US hypocrisy at its very worst, yet supported openly by Vice President Dick Cheney, a chickenhawk who commented "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service".

Ironically, one of the arguments Bush-Cheney used to invade Iraq was "Saddam Hussein tortured people".

Of all the US hypocrites who deserve to rot in hell forever, Cheney surely must be near the top of the list.

Unfortunately, Obama will do nothing but push all of this under the rug. Worse yet, many leaders in both parties support US-sponsored torture, yet whine at the slightest opportunity when other countries do the same.

Salute!

USAM makes me want to stand up and salute. It's not often I say that in complete sincerity about anything related to US military service.

Followup Post:

Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

I Traded Some Gold For Silver

Posted: 10 Dec 2014 01:16 AM PST

Last Friday I decided the gold:silver ratio was so out of line that I swapped some of my gold for silver. The ratio is a measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold.

Exchange Rate

My exchange rate last Friday was as follows: "USD 38.2355/goldgram & USD 16.3589/silver ounce" where 1 gram (g) of gold Equals 0.032 troy ounces (oz t) in gold.

Simply stated, I traded some of my gold at $1194.859375 for an equivalent dollar amount of silver at $16.3589.

This does not constitute a recommendation, I am merely stating what I did.

Previous Physical Metal Transactions

On April 27, 2011 I announced Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold.
I have held physical silver and gold investments continuously for 5 years, and on and off before that. Today I cashed out of silver, trading it for an equal dollar value of gold.

For the sake of full disclosure, my physical precious metals holdings are now entirely at GoldMoney and I have an affiliate relationship with them.
At the time, silver was roughly $46 and gold roughly $1500. Since I sold every ounce I had that was a good move. My next move wasn't that great.

On May 1, 2012 I announced I'm Swapping Some Gold for Silver.

Fortunately I only bought back about 1/3 of what I sold. Here was my exchange rate: "USD 53.4986/goldgram & USD 30.9600/silver ounce".

My expectation all along was for silver to dip to the low $20s but a couple rebounds from the high 20s to the 30s caused me to change my mind.

Fortunately I had more patience on this add, and I just bought the rest of my silver-relative-to gold allocation.

Time will tell if "gold at $1194.859375 for an equivalent dollar amount of silver at $16.3589" is a good trade, but I like my chances.

Gold-Silver Ratio



The above chart courtesy of Nick at Sharelynx Gold, also known as Gold Charts "R" Us. Nick has a free week on his charts. Gold Charts "R" Us has 1,000's of pages and over 10,000 charts on a subscription basis, but you can check out the site for free until December 14.

Ratio Synopsis

In late 2008 it took 85 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. That was a great time to buy silver relative to gold.

In April of 2011, when I sold all of my silver, it took roughly 33 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold, a great time to dump silver for gold (or as it turns out, an even better opportunity to go to cash or treasuries).

It remains to be seen if this is a good opportunity to buy silver, but I like my chances, not only because of the gold-silver ratio, but because I believe precious metals in general represent a good buy opportunity at this time.

Metal-to-Metal Swaps

Swapping one precious metal for another is an easy transaction at GoldMoney.

For further discussion, please see Physical Gold and Silver vs. Paper Gold and Silver: How Much Markup Are You Willing to Pay?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

9.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Rectal Rehydration, Broken Limbs; 54 Countries Assist US; Dick Cheney War Criminal

Posted: 09 Dec 2014 04:36 PM PST

Today the US released its CIA report on torture. The results are shocking. For example, the New York Times provides 7 Key Points From the C.I.A. Torture Report.

  1. The C.I.A.'s interrogation techniques were more brutal and employed more extensively than the agency portrayed.
  2. The C.I.A. interrogation program was mismanaged and was not subject to adequate oversight.
  3. The C.I.A. misled members of Congress and the White House about the effectiveness and extent of its brutal interrogation techniques.
  4. Interrogators in the field who tried to stop the brutal techniques were repeatedly overruled by senior C.I.A. officials.
  5. The C.I.A. repeatedly underreported the number of people it detained and subjected to harsh interrogation techniques under the program.
  6. At least 26 detainees were wrongfully held and did not meet the government's standard for detention.
  7. The C.I.A. leaked classified information to journalists, exaggerating the success of interrogation methods in an effort to gain public support.

Here's the full 525-page sanitized and redacted Congressional Study on CIA Torture. Various reports and excerpts follow:

Rectal Rehydration, Broken Limbs, 180 Hrs of Sleep Deprivation

The Guardian reports Rectal Rehydration and Broken Limbs: Grisliest Findings in CIA Torture Report.
While parts of the programme had been known – and much more will never be revealed – the catalogue of abuse is nightmarish and reads like something invented by the Marquis de Sade or Hieronymous Bosch.

Detainees were forced to stand on broken limbs for hours, kept in complete darkness, deprived of sleep for up to 180 hours, sometimes standing, sometimes with their arms shackled above their heads.

Prisoners were subjected to "rectal feeding" without medical necessity. Rectal exams were conducted with "excessive force". The report highlights one prisoner later diagnosed with anal fissures, chronic hemorrhoids and "symptomatic rectal prolapse".

The report mentions mock executions, Russian roulette. US agents threatened to slit the throat of a detainee's mother, sexually abuse another and threatened prisoners' children. One prisoner died of hypothermia brought on in part by being forced to sit on a bare concrete floor without pants.
Frozen to Death
At COBALT, the CIA interrogated in 2002 Gul Rahman, described as a suspected Islamic extremist. He was subjected to "48 hours of sleep deprivation, auditory overload, total darkness, isolation, a cold shower and rough treatment".

CIA headquarters suggested "enhanced measures" might be needed to get him to comply. A CIA officer at COBALT ordered Rahman be "shackled to the wall of his cell in a position that required the detainee to rest on the bare concrete floor".

He was only wearing a sweatshirt as a CIA officer has ordered his clothes to be removed earlier after judging him to be uncooperative during an interrogation.

The next day, guards found Rahman dead. An internal CIA review and autopsy assessed he likely died from hypothermia – "in part from having been forced to sit on the bare concrete floor without pants".
Forgotten Man Chained to a Wall
One CIA interrogator at COBALT reported that "'literally, a detainee could go for days or weeks without anyone looking at him', and that his team found one detainee who 'as far as we could detrmined', had been chained to a wall in a standing position for 17 days'.' Some prisoners were said to be like dogs in kennels: "When the doors to their cells were pened, 'they cowered.'"
Lies

What did all of this accomplish? The answer as any rational person might speculate is "nothing".

Please consider Senate Report on CIA Torture Claims Spy Agency Lied About 'Ineffective' Program.

Also consider Stop Believing the Lies: America Tortured More than 'Some Folks' – and Covered It Up.
For the past few days, we have seen many of the same resentful politicians and former CIA leaders in charge of the torture-denial regime being handed virtual royalty status by the American media to respond to pre-emptively respond to the report without much of any pushback. Dick Cheney basically got to write his own interview in the New York Times, while Michael Hayden, the former NSA and CIA director in charge of lying to the Senate for years, was handed softball after softball by Bob Schieffer of CBS News to make his case. It is borderline propaganda.
Still Classified

Borderline propaganda? No, it's blatantly obvious political propaganda of the worst kind. By the way, the full committee study, at 6,700 pages, remains classified. What the hell else has yet to be disclosed?

Map: 54 Countries Assist US

Vox has a nice Map of 54 countries that helped the CIA with its torture-linked rendition program.
The CIA torture program was even bigger than the details released in the Senate Intelligence Committee torture report might suggest. The reason is that the CIA didn't just have its own torture program, run out of its "black site" secret detention and torture prisons broad. It also used a vast network of other countries to help capture, detain, transport, and, yes, torture detainees.

That network is best shown by looking at the CIA's extraordinary rendition program. This is the program under which the CIA would detain and transport suspected terrorists with the help of foreign governments. In all, a stunning 54 countries participated in the CIA-run rendition program. Here they are:



Whether or not all 54 of those countries are complicit in the CIA torture program is debatable. The program could work in a number of different ways; each of these countries supported the CIA's rendition program, but not every country directly participated in torture. ...
Cheney Praises Torture

Yesterday, in advance of the release, Former Vice President Dick Cheney Dismissed Senate Report.

The reported conclusion by the Senate Intelligence Committee that the C.I.A. misled the White House, he added, "is just a crock."

"They deserve a lot of praise," Mr. Cheney said. "As far as I'm concerned, they ought to be decorated, not criticized."

Dick Cheney War Criminal

My take is that Dick Cheney is a war criminal. He should be tried in a court of law, and if justice is served, sentenced to death and buried in the same grave as Sadaam Hussein.

The same goes for everyone involved in the torture schemes especially former CIA director George Tenet.

There is absolutely no excuse for this kind of behavior. Ever.

By the way, at a meeting on December 12, 2002, Tenet assured president Bush that the evidence that Iraq had WMDs amounted to a "slam dunk case."

Obama's Limp Response

Today president Obama issued this limp response: "I hope that today's report can help us leave these techniques where they belong, in the past. ... It reinforces my long-held view that these harsh methods were not only inconsistent with our values as nation, they did not serve our broader counterterrorism efforts or our national security interests."

No charges will be filed and the rest of the classified report will be swept under the rug. And just two days ago Obama transferred Six Guantanamo Detainees to Uruguay.
The detainees were a Tunisian, a Palestinian and four Syrians who were captured in Pakistan and Afghanistan more than a decade ago and turned over to U.S. forces. "Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel initially was reluctant to approve the transfer."
Obama's Promise to Close Guantánamo Bay Torture Facility

In 2008 president Obama promised to close our Guantánamo Bay Detention Facility in Cuba. We are still there.

On January 28, 2013, The Wire posted a Timeline of Obama's Failed Promise to Close Gitmo noting "the office responsible for closing the prison has itself been closed."

On January 22, 2014, the National Journal reported Five Years After Obama Vowed to Shut It Down, Guantanamo Bay Remains Open.
"The pace of the push to close the controversial camp has slowed in recent years, and doesn't show signs of picking up."

On this day in 2009, President Obama issued an executive order that called for the Guantanamo Bay detention facility to be closed within a year. A month later, in his first State of the Union address, the president told Americans he had ordered the closure of the controversial camp in Cuba, and "will seek swift and certain justice for captured terrorists." Guantanamo, which remains open, has not been mentioned in the president's annual speech since.
Why is the US Still in Cuba?

Can anyone please explain why the US is still running a torture operation in Cuba?

Obviously not. As usual, it's nothing but a pack of lies from this president.

Color Me Cynical

As far as torture goes, I am cynical of Obama's announcements.

I suspect the biggest change will be for the CIA to stop putting its torture practices in reports as opposed to actually stopping the torture.

Cynicism aside, there is a zero percent chance president Obama will ever hold those responsible for the torture accountable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Temper Tantrum in Greece; Snap Elections May Pave Way for Eurozone Exit; Expect Bribes

Posted: 09 Dec 2014 02:02 PM PST

Yesterday, Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras called a snap presidential election hoping to retain power even though he failed to deliver on his promise to end Greece's €245bn troika-sponsored bailout.

Today, the markets threw a fit. Yield on the Greek 10-year bond soared from 7.258% to 8.17%. This is below the spike high on October 16, but the trend is clear. Yield is up 257 basis points (2.57 percentage points) since September 10.

Greece 10-Year Bond Yield



I commented on this on October 16, predicting snap elections: Greece 10-Year Bond Yield Soars to 9% as Prime Minister's Gambit Explodes; Snap Elections Likely, and Opposition Syriza Would Win.

The hissy fit resumed today, following the actual snap elections announcement.

Athens Composite Stock Index



That was the biggest one-day decline since December 1987. Balk shares led the way. Attica Bank lost over 26% and  Piraeus Bank declined 17%.

Exit Fears Once Again in Greece

The Financial Times reports Snap Election in Greece Reignites Fears for Eurozone
Greece's political woes re-erupted as a threat to global financial stability yesterday, triggering the biggest drop on the Athens stock exchange since the 1980s and sending reverberations through world markets.

The trigger for the plunge was prime minister Antonis Samaras' announcement of a snap presidential election. If he fails to win sufficient support for his candidate, an early general election could follow which investors fear will bring to power the radical left Syriza party.

Such an outcome would reignite fears about Greece's place within Europe's monetary union. Syriza wants to renegotiate the country's sovereign debt and hike public spending, moves which would put Athens at loggerheads with its creditors.

By bringing forward the first round of the presidential election to December 17 — with further votes on December 23 and 29 — Mr Samaras appears to be gambling that independent MPs and those from smaller parties will back his candidate rather than face political and financial chaos triggered by a Syriza victory. He needs 180 votes, but the governing coalition only has 155.

On Tuesday, yields on Greek bonds maturing in three year's time rose above 8 per cent, 25 basis points higher than equivalent 10 year yields, an indication that investors were growing increasingly concerned about the country's ability to service its debts in the near future.
Question at Hand

Will the stock market decline and surge in yields help or hurt Samaras?

Certainly the political class in Greece, in Germany, in France, in the US and for that matter everywhere will be out in full force denouncing Syriza.

Nonetheless, Samaras will fail on the first two presidential votes. It's the third vote that matters. In the past, the IMF, EU, and other outside influences swayed enough politicians to matter. It's by no means certain they can do so again.

National Elections vs. Presidential Election

By the way, these aforementioned snap elections are to elect the president, a largely ceremonial post. The Greek constitution mandates dissolution of Parliament and a national election should the Greek parliament fail to appoint a president. Syriza holds a substantial lead in national elections. 



Expect Bribes

If it appears the final vote for president is headed the wrong way, watch German Chancellor Angela Merkel come out with some wishy-washy praise for Samaras including some small offer of debt relief or other favors. 

If threats and praise do not work but the vote is close, there's always money under the table to buy a few needed votes.

Should bribes fail, expect the stock and bond markets to react with even greater volatility ahead of the next national election because Syriza party leader, Alexis Tsipras, threatens to renegotiate Greek debt.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Physical Gold and Silver vs. Paper Gold and Silver: How Much Markup Are You Willing to Pay?

Posted: 09 Dec 2014 10:57 AM PST

I am a gold bull, but I am also concerned about seriously misleading hype regarding alleged shortages.

For example, a friend recently emailed an article that contained this claim: Gold Selling for at least 50% over Spot in Asia-Rob Kirby.
According to Rob Kirby "In the Asian market, if you could find physical bullion as cheap as spot plus 50%, you'd be doing really, really, really well and you'd be hard pressed to find serious tonnage at that price in Asia."

Kirby, who specializes in acquiring large amounts of physical gold for clients, sees physical gold bullion selling for at least "50%" over spot, which would put the price of gold in Asia at least $1,800 per ounce.  Kirby also says, "Prices being paid right now in Asia make a mockery of the prices being shown in COMEX and the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association). These paper markets have divorced themselves from the laws of economics.
Misleading Gold Hype

Kirby's statement is purposeful hype. The phrase that Kirby relies on to make his statement semi-factual is "serious tonnage of bullion". However, people don't generally buy serious tonnage of bullion. Instead, they buy bars.

Even with that phrase, I would expect arbitrage to whittle away at the alleged 50% markup.

Markups normally decline the more one buys. Anyone can ascertain that by checking refinery, mint and bullion dealer prices for direct sales online.

Of course, if someone demands "tonnage" of bullion or coins and "tonnage" is not available, then one cannot readily get it at any price.

Regardless, the average person can buy physical gold and silver in small or large quantities with very tiny markups. I will mention numerous ways in just a moment but first let's consider silver.

Silver Bars and Coins

Reader Mark emailed me a few weeks ago when silver was trading at $15.72. Mark complained that his dealer wanted $24.50 for an American Silver Eagle (ASE).

That's a markup of $8.78, nearly 56% over spot! On silver bars, the dealer markup was spot plus $3.50. That's a markup of about 22%.

That small coins and bars are so expensive does not mean there is a shortage of silver. Nor does it mean there is a difference between physical silver and paper silver. All it means is there is a shortage of silver eagles and small bars.

I believe it's crazy to pay such prices. And although I am pretty sure one can find better dealers with lower markups, coins and small bars are simply not the best way to go in my opinion.

Three Options

Mark asked me for some options. I noted three of the most popular vault options for gold and silver, but there are others. Here is my standard reply to such inquiries:
In general, I do not recommend purchasing gold and silver coins and small bars because the markup is generally very high. There are additional concerns and risks should you want to sell your holdings. Finally, should you decide to take delivery yourself, there are ongoing storage concerns, including insurance.

All things considered, there is a great deal of merit in audited, safe storage. I prefer holding metal outside the country for obvious reasons. Others disagree. If you want immediate physical possession yourself, much of the following discussion does not apply.

Three popular choices for holding gold in vaults are GoldMoney, BullionVault, and Perth Mint.

GoldMoney and BullionVault offer allocated programs. In allocated programs you have title to what you purchase.

Perth Mint offers allocated and unallocated programs. It's important to distinguish between the two. Unallocated gold is a financial asset; you own a liability of the Perth Mint.  You do not own metal.

The Perth Mint does offer allocated storage, but is very expensive.  Perth charges 1.00% per annum for storing gold, whereas GoldMoney charges 0.12% at most locations, 0.18% at others per its fee schedule.

Perth maintains that its unallocated program is 100% metal-backed, but also admits theoretical exposure should the Mint becomes insolvent. However, Perth Mint operates under a Government Guarantee that many will find sufficient.

GoldMoney holdings are in audited vaults in Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada, London and Switzerland. The bars are individually numbered and assigned. You may own a percentage of a bar.

GoldMoney is based in Jersey, an English speaking country off the coast of France. Jersey has some of the strongest property rights laws in the world. 
GoldMoney sells at the market ask plus a mark-up. BullionVault is commission based on top of a bid-ask spread. BullionVault's combined commission + spread may at times be lower than the mark-up at GoldMoney. However GoldMoney guarantees a trade, they are a broker dealer. And GoldMoney allows one to sell at the market bid with no mark-up (i.e., no commission when selling).

I prefer allocated storage over unallocated storage. Because Perth Mint allocated storage cost is so high, I prefer GoldMoney and BullionVault to Perth Mint.

GoldMoney is unique in that it allows for direct metal-to-metal exchanges between any of the following metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Other dealers may provide a two-step gold-silver process (i.e. sell one and use the proceeds to buy the other).

Bear in mind I do have a relationship with GoldMoney. It will not affect the price you buy or sell at, but I feel the need to point out the relationship.

If you decide to go with GoldMoney, please select this GoldMoney link containing my referral code. It costs you nothing more, but as an incentive to use this link, new accounts will receive six months free storage.


The following applies to US citizens:

I am not a tax accountant but please remember that offshore accounts are taxable and must be disclosed to the IRS. Only the gains are taxed when you sell, not the holdings.

Reporting of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts may apply to accounts that total in excess of $10,000. Please see Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts for more information.
Please do your own due diligence. There are numerous alternatives and you may find an alternative you like better.

The important point is that unless you insist on taking immediate possession of small quantities of silver and gold, there are numerous ways you can buy physical gold, silver, and platinum at tiny markups.

And as long as you can buy precious metals at small markups, these stories of physical metal prices vs. paper metal prices are purposeful hype.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Kills Covered Bond Market; Buyers of Only Resort; Japanization of Europe Continues

Posted: 09 Dec 2014 12:59 AM PST

ECB president Mario Draghi set out to stimulate bank lending by purchasing covered bonds. Yields plunged, which is precisely what Draghi wanted.

Now, the average covered bond yield of 0.53% is so low that investors won't touch them. Numerous bond deals have been cancelled due to lack of demand. The buyer of only resort is the ECB.

This all transpired since September.

Please consider ECB Blamed for Covered Bond Shortage.
Covered bond supply has reached its lowest level in nearly two decades as the European Central Bank has been accused of crowding out investors from the market by pushing up prices and depressing yields.

European covered bond volumes total $166.2bn for the year to date, the lowest figure since 1996 according to Dealogic. This is in spite of an ECB programme announced in September aiming to stimulate the market.

Last month Allied Irish Banks took the unusual step of postponing a planned 10-year covered bond deal amid market speculation that the yield offered was too low to tempt investors.

"There have been a whole series of deals which have been pulled — not just [the AIB] one," said a London-based banks analyst. "The ECB is crowding out investors. Covered bond spreads have tightened and real money investors say they are not getting rewarded for the risks they are taking."

By purchasing covered bonds, the ECB wants to offer additional funding for banks, which, it hopes, will use the cash to boost lending to the real economy.

But amid lower bank funding needs and sluggish economic growth covered bond supply has dried up in traditionally large markets such as Germany. Year-to-date volumes have declined 5 per cent year on year and are less than half the volumes in 2011.

"Buying covered bonds is not the silver bullet that will drive Europe out of the deflationary spiral," said a London-based debt banker. "It does point towards sovereign QE."
Japanization of Europe Continues

Economic madness did not help Japan, and it will not cure Europe either. But Central Bankers do not care about losses or failures.

Central bank policy remains: "If it doesn't work, do more of it". And so they will, On December 4, the ECB announced a Broad Stimulus Plan, All Assets but Gold on the Table for Purchase.
ECB President Mario Draghi said that policy makers "won't tolerate" a prolonged period of low inflation, and that officials discussed "all assets but gold" as potential targets for purchases. The council asked internal committees last month to design new unconventional stimulus measures to help fuel growth and inflation.
Japan issued numerous statements of a similar nature over the past two decades. And after decades of fighting deflation with more debt hoping to spur inflation (an amazingly counterproductive strategy), Japan is caught in a trap of its own making.

Japan wants inflation but it's balance sheet is so bloated that a rise in interest rates of a mere 2% or so would consume 100% of government revenue. No investors would touch Japanese bonds in this setup.

Buyers of Only Resort

The buyer of only resort for Japanese government bonds is the Bank of Japan.

The ECB is on a similar same path. Having cornered covered bonds, the ECB wants to expand the program to other assets.

The Law of Bad Ideas is clearly in play.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

8.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Mexican Peso Another Casualty of Falling Oil Prices; Mexico Announces Intervention to Halt Decline; Bazooka Theory Revisited

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 04:55 PM PST

Currencies of commodity exporter and oil producing countries have been under continual attack. The Mexican peso is the latest to feel the heat.

Mexican Peso vs. US Dollar



Peso at Two-Year Low

The Mexican Peso declined from 9.85-Per-US$ to 15.59-Per-US$ during the great financial crisis (a loss of about 37%) as oil prices plunged. Since then, the peso recovered much of that loss.

Recently, and also in conjunction with declining oil prices, the Mexican Peso declined from 12.02-Per-US$ to 14.39-Per-US$, a decline of roughly 16%.

In response, Mexico Announced Currency Intervention as Peso Weakens to Two-Year Low.
Mexico's central bank revived an intervention program designed to curb foreign-exchange volatility after the peso fell to a two-year low.

Policy makers will auction $200 million on days when the peso weakens at least 1.5 percent from the previous close, the central bank said today in a statement. A similar measure to support the local currency was put in place in November 2011 and was used just three times before ending in April last year.

The peso, which pared today's losses after the announcement, is still down 10 percent over the past six months on concern that a drop in oil prices will damp investment in the country's energy industry. The new program to support the peso surprised investors including Juan Carlos Alderete, a currency strategist at Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB in Mexico City, after Finance Minister Luis Videgaray said last week that he didn't see a need for intervention.

"I don't think it will be necessary to actually use the measure," Alderete said in a telephone interview. "It's more of a preventative one based on high market volatility."
Bazooka Theory Revisited

Apparently Alderete is a believer in the Paulson's Bazooka Theory:

"If you have a bazooka in your pocket and people know it, you probably won't have to use it." Paulson said at a July 15 Senate Banking Committee hearing."

We have seen that theory crumble to dust on numerous occasions in Greece, on Paulson's idea of forcing banks to lend, on Russian currency interventions, etc.

It's only when central banks come out blazing does the market actually take notice. Moreover, results are not guaranteed perpetually even though the Swiss intervention on the Euro has held so far.

Switzerland succeeded at suppressing the Franc vs. the Euro (assuming you really believe that constitutes success) but only because the Swiss National Bank was willing to take on all comers regardless of size. That's not a luxury Mexico has.

Finally, should the Euro collapse, Switzerland will be stuck with a massive pile of useless euro reserves at huge loss. Ironically, that possibility arguably makes the Swiss Franc one of the most overvalued currencies around.

I patiently sit holding gold, knowing full well there is going to be a massive global currency crisis at some not-so distant point. I just cannot say when, or even the country that triggers the mess. I can say the list of potential candidates where such a crisis may start grows every year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Helping "Qualified" Buyers: Fannie, Freddie Detail 3%-Down Payment Mortgage Program

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 12:43 PM PST

Now that home prices have recovered and homes are not the bargain they were four years ago, it is fitting the parasites once again want to make homes "affordable" to the masses with low-down payment options.

Please consider Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac detail plans for 3% down-payment mortgages.
Housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday detailed plans to once again back mortgages with down payments as low as 3%, saying the move to make home ownership more accessible contains safeguards to protect against abuses that led to the subprime housing market crash.

"Our goal is to help additional qualified borrowers gain access to mortgages," said Andrew Bon Salle, executive vice president for single family underwriting, pricing and capital markets at Fannie Mae.

Officials said the program was designed to help credit-worthy borrowers, particularly those with low or moderate incomes, who can demonstrate the ability to repay a mortgage but lack the money needed for at least a 5% down payment.

Freddie Mac will limit its program, called Home Possible Advantage, to mortgages for first-time homebuyers. Borrowers must participate in a homebuyer education and counseling program before receiving the loan and will have to pay for private mortgage insurance.

Fannie Mae's program will be available to anyone who has not owned a primary residence for three years. Private mortgage insurance will be required but counseling and education will not.
Helping "Qualified" Buyers

Notice the statements about helping "qualified borrowers".

If you lower the qualifications to zero, everyone qualifies by definition. But is that a "help" or a debt-trap in waiting?

My Take

If you cannot afford to put 10% down on a home, then you can't afford the home.

I side with House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) who stated: "Such loans are inherently risky because the borrower has almost no financial cushion against a personal or economic downturn, vastly increasing the likelihood they will walk away from the loan once it gets significantly underwater."

Low down payment loans are "an invitation by government for industry to return to slipshod and dangerous practices that caused the mortgage meltdown in the first place and wrecked our economy."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Off the Menu: McDonald's US Sales Unexpectedly Decline 4.6%

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 11:47 AM PST

Global fast food sales are down 2.2%, their sixth consecutive monthly fall. McDonald's leads the way with a 4.6% sales decline in November, more than double the expected decline.

In its report Off the Menu, the BBC notes that like-for-like sales at McDonald's have not increased since October 2013, as smaller rivals eroded its market share.

Meanwhile, Mexican food chain Chipotle reported a 20% rise in like-for-like sales for the three months to September 30 - the third quarter of double-digit increases.

More to it Than Competition

Some blame it on the strong US dollar, but that only applies to foreign sales. People heading elsewhere? Yes, but it's easy to grow faster when you are much smaller. I blame it primarily on the cost (value if you prefer that term).

McDonald's Prices

A check of Fast Food Menu Prices shows that a Bacon Cheese Quarter Pounder Meal will set you back $6.60 in Illinois. Add in 10% sales tax for some Cook County locations and the cost per person is $7.26.

If there's two of you, the cost hits nearly $15. Care to supersize that? For a family of four?

Then there's the wait.

Build-Your-Own

It's difficult without an extremely long wait to "have it your way" at McDonald's.

My question: How is it that you can get it whatever way you want at Wendy's and Burger King without a wait, but you cannot at McDonald's?

That's long been a mystery to me. At any rate, the Consumerist just reported McDonald's Bringing Build-Your-Own Burger Option To 2,000 Locations.

Here's the catch:

"Don't expect comparable menu prices for your bespoke burger. At one location visited by USA Today, a customized burger with medium fries and a drink cost $8.29, while the pre-made burger meal only comes in at $5 on the regular menu."

Is that supposed to increase sales or drive everyone away?

"One of the common complaints from McDonald's franchisees is that their corporate bosses have been forcing new and expensive menu options on them. If the company decides to keep rolling out the Create Your Taste option at more eateries, you can expect some push-back from franchisees with smaller stores who don't have the space for the additional ingredients or room for ordering kiosks."

Breakfast

The only time I ever eat at McDonald's is for breakfast, and even then, only when I am out of town. Moreover, at 10:00 AM sharp (10:30 in some locations), McDonald's cuts off the breakfast menu. It's not often I am up and about and finished blogging by then.

Enter the Unions

Unions demand $15 an hour. They claim they cannot live on $7.25. I sympathize, but who's to blame for that?

It's not the stores. Sales are already in decline. Make the minimum wage $15 an hour and what is that burger going to cost?

Besides, most McDonald's stores are franchises, semi-independently run (with big brother Ronald making sure franchisees obey the necessary rules).

I suspect many locations are barely profitable, or profitable only because of cheap family labor.

Unions claim higher minimum wages will not cost jobs. The claim defies common sense. If unions want to blame someone, they ought to picket the Fed for inane inflation policy, not McDonalds.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"You Missed Your Chance"

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 12:39 AM PST

Check out this Bloomberg silliness by writers Andrea Wong and Liz Capo McCormick: You Missed the Chance to Buy the Dollar.
Anyone who was waiting until after today's U.S. employment report to get in cheaply on the dollar rally probably blew that chance.

Trading patterns were showing as recently as three days ago that the five-month rally that has taken the greenback to multiyear highs against many of its counterparts was losing momentum and strategists were saying gains would slow with the absence of any additional catalysts before year-end. Those same measures are now suggesting that the dollar's ascension into 2015 is looking unchallenged.

"People had thought we'll get some pullbacks in the dollar and we'd get some better levels to buy," Niall O'Connor, a technical analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said by phone. "The price actions today have been impressive. We see a higher risk we can extend" through further levels.

"The technical breakdown we saw this week in the euro effectively says the currency has resumed its downtrend," said MacNeil Curry, Bank of America's head of technical strategy. "We expect further weakness in the euro and dollar gains to persist. Another dollar correction may happen down the road or in 2015, but at this state in the game the trend is still pretty sizable" for dollar appreciation.

"You have the interest rate support, there's a lot of underlying foundation in this move," Brad Bechtel, managing director of Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview Dec. 3.

Goldman Sachs forecast last month the dollar will rally 7.1 percent to 130 yen in 12 months and 6.5 percent to $1.15 per euro, eventually to parity in 2017. Morgan Stanley estimated the U.S. currency will rise to 127 yen and $1.12 per euro by the end of next year.
Too Late!

That article reminds me of the nonsensical announcement "It's Too Late".

Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah

At first glance, the headline is not all that ridiculous. After all, many bears have been pronouncing the death of the dollar for what now seems like forever. I took the other side of the coin.

When hyperinflationists predicted the dollar would go to zero, I took the other side of the debate and said buy the dollar.

Hyperinflation is still preposterous of course, but the time to buy the dollar was long ago, not on some imperceptible dip a few days before the payroll report.

Chance to Sell

Goldman Sachs sees a "7.1% rally". Bank of America sees "pretty sizable dollar appreciation", etc., etc.

Such one-sided bullishness is the overwhelming consensus. I believe the reversal will be spectacular not only in the dollar, but in dollar-related equities.

So, if indeed you "missed your chance to buy", and you did (not a few days ago but months ago), what about the opportunity to sell (short)?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

7.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Abenomics Revised Down Again

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 04:26 PM PST

Economists expected Japan's third quarter GDP would drop 0.1%. The preliminary forecast was -0.4%.

Japan just announced capital spending was even worse than reported. Compared to last last quarter, the estimate now is -0.5%.

For those who prefer looking at annualized numbers, Japan's third-quarter GDP revised down to annualized 1.9 percent contraction.
Japan's economy shrank an annualized 1.9 percent in July-September from the previous quarter, worse than a preliminary 1.6 percent contraction as capital expenditure fell more than initially estimated, revised government data showed on Monday.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter, against a preliminary reading of a 0.4 percent drop, the Cabinet Office data showed. The result compared with a median market forecast for a 0.1 percent contraction.

Capital expenditure fell 0.4 percent from the previous quarter, more than a preliminary 0.2 percent decline.
Expect more printing: As everyone knows, if at first you don't succeed, do even more of what didn't work.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Needs Second Bailout, Currency Reserves Drop to Critical Level; Another IMF Visit; Where's the Love?

Posted: 07 Dec 2014 10:47 AM PST

On Wednesday I noted the arrival of carpetbaggers in Ukraine. (See Enter the Carpetbaggers: Ukraine's New Finance Minister a US Citizen, New Economy Minister from Lithuania).

No carpetbagging mission is ever complete without at least one visit from the IMF.

On Friday we learned that Ukraine will be blessed with a second visit from the IMF as its Foreign-Currency Reserves Dip Below $10 Billion.
Ukraine's central bank reported foreign-currency reserves at their lowest for almost a decade, raising pressure on the West to provide more financing to the country being squeezed by Russia.

It also presents a dilemma for the West, which is reluctant to hand over more cash without clearer evidence that Ukraine's newly elected government will deliver on pledges to overhaul the bureaucratic and corruption-plagued economy.

Ukraine needs to pass a tight budget for next year among other overhauls to land nearly $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund, part of a $17 billion package that officials and analysts in Kiev say already needs to be expanded.

"Ukraine is currently in a pretty critical condition—and desperately in need of IMF life support," Standard Bank analyst Timothy Ash wrote in a note.

Ukraine's central bank said Friday its reserves dropped 21% to $9.97 billion in November from the previous month, after paying off some debt for natural gas deliveries owed to Russia, and servicing other debts.

Reserves are now at their lowest since December 2004, when they stood at $9.71 billion. Analysts said the reserves now cover a little over one month of imports, while the IMF recommends reserves equivalent to at least three months of imports.

The national bank spokeswoman said reserves were "enough to cover all current liabilities." [Failing to add ... for a month].
Where's the Love?

Encouraged by the US, Ukrainians overthrew a Russian-leaning government. The new thugs sought closer ties to Western Europe.

So, where's the European love?

There isn't any. No money is coming from Germany, Italy, France or anywhere else.

Worse yet, Ukraine is bogged down in a war with rebels and all of its gold mysteriously vanished.

Except for the printing press, Ukraine has no money to wage war or pay soldiers. And it has no money at all to pay for oil, natural gas, or any other imports.

Ukrainian Currency in Free-Fall

As one might expect under the dire circumstances, Ukraine's currency, the Hryvnia, is in a state of freefall.




Since November 30, 2013, the Hryvnia has gone from 8.15-per-US$ to 15.34-per-US$. That's a decline of 46.87% in just over a year.

Since June 30, 2008, the Hryvnia has gone from 4.5-per-US$ to 15.34-per-US$. That's a decline of 70.66%.

Were those closer ties to Western Europe worth it? If so, for whom?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

6.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Police Chokehold Ends in Death: Two Videos, Which One is Right?

Posted: 06 Dec 2014 06:37 PM PST

Here is a pair of videos on the death of Eric Garner via police chokehold.

The first video is by comedian Jon Stewart. The Second is an interview of Senator Rand Paul on Fox News.

Please play them both.

Jon Stewart Tears Into Eric Garner Reactions



Link if video does not play: Jon Stewart Tears Into Eric Garner Reactions

Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'



Link if video does not play: Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'

My Take

Both videos come to the same conclusion: Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'. I think we can all agree on that.

And we certainly should agree that Stewart is correct in that something is truly messed up with the grand jury process.

The grand jury problem is easy to describe:

Prosecutors are in bed with the police. The grand jury is fed info the prosecutor wants the jury to hear. If the prosecutor does not want to go after after a police officer, it will not happen. But, if a prosecutor really wants to go after someone, rest assured the charges will be trumped up.

It's that simple. So on that point I side 100% with Jon Stewart.

Yet, Stewart clearly took a couple of clips of Rand Paul totally out of context to make his point. That's something he should not have done.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gold Drain at the New York Fed: Where's It Going?

Posted: 06 Dec 2014 11:28 AM PST

Nick at Sharelynx Gold, also known as Gold Charts "R" Us emailed an interesting chart last week showing gold drain at the New York Fed.



Earmarked gold dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold home.

Here's a link to Earmarked Gold with a second chart that shows all Fed holdings.

Gold Charts "R" Us has 1,000's of pages and over 10,000 charts on a subscription basis, but you can check out the site for free until December 14. Click on the first link at the top for a look.

Where's the Gold Going?

This was the largest monthly drawdown in 13 years and the largest series of drawdowns since 2007 (drawdowns in red on above chart).

So, where's the gold going? Three answers:

Germany

Koos Jansen at BullionStar reports German Gold Repatriation Accelerating.

That article is interesting because it takes to task extremely sloppy Bloomberg reporting regarding German golf repatriation.

Netherlands

On November 21, Jansen reported Netherlands Has Repatriated 122.5t Gold From US.

The Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), has repatriated in utmost secret 122.5 tonnes of gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) to its vaults in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, according to a press release from DNB published today (November 21).

DNB states it has changed allocation policy from 11 % in Amsterdam, 51 % at the FRBNY, 20 % in Canada and 18 % at the Bank Of England (BOE); to 31 % in Amsterdam, 31 % at the FRBNY, 20 % in Canada and 18 % at the BOE. According to the World Gold Council's latest data DNB has 612.5 tonnes in official gold reserves.



Belgium

Yesterday, Jansen reported Belgium Investigating To Repatriate All Gold Reserves.

Countries want their gold back. Who can blame them?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

5.12.14

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Global Oil Consumption Report: What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Oil Usage Since 2009?

Posted: 05 Dec 2014 11:01 AM PST

Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.

David writes ...
Hello Mish,

I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.

The data represents the percentage change in oil consumption from 2009 to 2013, the latest year non-OECD data were available.  This is an absolute percentage change, and not an annualized change.  For instance, oil consumption in Spain was roughly 20% lower in 2013 than in 2009.  This was about the same rate of decline seen in war-wracked Syria.  Greece was down even more, close to 30%. 

In order to make the data labels readable, I've had to separate the charts into three.  One shows countries in the 1 million to 20 million b/d group.  The next shows the 1 million – 4 million club (all large countries excluding the US, China and Japan), and the next shows the 100,000 to 1 million b/d club.

I've excluded the 141 countries in the EIA database whose consumption was less than 100,000 b/d, since these only account for about 3.5% of total global demand.

The sum for the entire world was a 6.5% increase from 2009-13.

Best regards,
David
Large Users: 1-20 Million Barrels Per Day



click on any chart for sharper image

Medium Users: 1-4 Million Barrels Per Day (Above Minus US, China, Japan)



Small Users: 100,00 to 1 Million Barrels Per Day



Observations

  • Usage in the US is up only 1% since 2009 
  • Usage in most European countries is down since 2009 (Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, France, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, Czech Republic, Ireland, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland)
  • China, Japan, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia are the largest countries where oil usage is expanding
  • From a Peak Oil aspect China and Japan are the most troubling

Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)

Country2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % ∆ 09-13Growth 09-13% Growth
China8,539.73 9,330.18 9,504.05 9,874.71 10,116.64 18.5%1,576.91 28.5%
Saudi Arabia2,194.54 2,371.38 2,760.91 2,861.00 2,925.00 33.3%730.46 13.2%
Brazil2,481.45 2,621.78 2,886.71 2,997.00 3,097.00 24.8%615.55 11.1%
India3,112.74 3,255.39 3,280.98 3,450.00 3,509.00 12.7%396.26 7.2%
Russia2,950.43 2,992.09 3,115.03 3,195.47 3,320.00 12.5%369.57 6.7%
Indonesia1,405.89 1,465.50 1,571.30 1,610.00 1,660.00 18.1%254.11 4.6%
Canada2,184.18 2,283.35 2,310.12 2,350.69 2,424.35 11.0%240.17 4.3%
United States18,771.40 19,180.13 18,882.07 18,490.21 18,961.13 1.0%189.73 3.4%
Argentina588.62 620.26 729.10 737.00 758.00 28.8%169.38 3.1%
Japan4,362.79 4,429.24 4,442.45 4,694.76 4,530.82 3.9%168.03 3.0%

BRICs and Saudi Arabia

Global oil consumption is up 6.5% from 2009-13. China alone accounts for 28.5% of that growth.

The top 5 global oil-growth contributors (China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, and Russia) account for 66.7% of global oil usage growth since 2009.

BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) GDPs, especially China and India are highly unlikely to grow at projected rates, especially if global oil production does not keep up.

Japan is also on a dangerous path. Abenomics would look far worse were it not for declining energy prices.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nonfarm Payrolls +321K; Unemployment 5.8%; Employed +4,000 (Household Survey), Unemployment +115,000

Posted: 05 Dec 2014 08:26 AM PST

Initial Reaction

The payroll survey shows a net gain of 321,000 jobs vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 230,000 jobs. September was revised up from 256,000 to 271,000. October was revised up from 214,000 to 243,000.

The unemployment rate was steady although employment only rose by 4,000 in the household survey. Unemployment actually rose by 115,000. Swings in household survey employment and the labor force have been wild lately.

Once again we are in a situation where the establishment survey and the household survey are at odds. Over time these fluctuations tend to smooth out. The question, as always, is "in which direction".

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +321,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +4,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: +115,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -177,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +235,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.8% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 11.4% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +187,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +119,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +69,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 at 62.8 - Household Survey

November 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment January 2011 - November 2014



Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose by 0.1 hours to 34.6 hours. For three consecutive months I said the exact same thing. Twice in a row, a correction now put the previous month at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.04 to $20.74. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees also rose $0.04 to $20.53.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 5.8%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 11.4%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com